Grêmio – Vasco da Gama

Brasileiro, July 28, 2024

Statistical Analysis

Grêmio:

• Performance: Grêmio is currently in 17th place in the Brasileiro table after 17 matches. They have recorded 4 wins, 3 draws, and 10 losses, with 14 goals scored and 22 goals conceded. The team’s average is 0.88 points per match.
• Goal Statistics: Their top scorer is Franco Cristaldo, with 3 goals. The xG (expected goals) is 16.6, indicating the team has underperformed in goal-scoring.
• Defensive Performance: With 22 goals conceded and an xGA (expected goals against) of 19.2, the defense has not been particularly strong.
• Pass Statistics: The team has an 80% pass accuracy, which is not outstanding but acceptable.

Vasco da Gama:

• Performance: Vasco is in 13th place with 5 wins, 4 draws, and 9 losses after 18 matches. They have scored 23 goals and conceded 29.
• Goal Statistics: Pablo Vegetti is their top scorer with 6 goals. The xG is 20.3, also indicating underperformance in goal-scoring.
• Defensive Performance: With 29 goals conceded and an xGA of 23.6, this suggests similarly weak defense.
• Pass Statistics: The team has an 82% pass accuracy, slightly better than Grêmio.

Human Analysis

The human analysis emphasizes the following:

• Grêmio Motivation: The team desperately needs points to avoid relegation, which may put significant pressure on them.
• Vasco Motivation: While Vasco is better positioned in the table, they also need points to stabilize their mid-table position.
• Injuries: Both teams have significant absentees, which could affect the gameplay.

Betting Suggestions

Low-Risk Tips:

1. Few Goals (Under 3.5 Low risk 1.24x, Under 2.5 Medium risk 1.67x): Due to both teams’ weak attacking performance, few goals are likely in the match.
   • Risk: Low
2. Vasco Win or Draw (X2) 1.71x: Given Grêmio’s poor form and motivational pressure, Vasco may have an edge.
   • Risk: Low

Medium-Risk Tips:

1. Number of Yellow Cards (Over 4.5 Low risk, Over 5.5 Medium risk 1.85x): Both teams’ need for points and the highlighted motivational factors in the human analysis could lead to a tense match.
   • Risk: Medium

Summary and Suggestions

Based on the analysis of the match between Grêmio and Vasco da Gama, the following safer betting tips are recommended:

1. Few Goals (Under 3.5/2.5) – Low Risk
2. Vasco Win or Draw (X2) – Low Risk
3. Number of Yellow Cards (Over 4.5/5.5) – Medium Risk

The analysis considers both teams’ current form, statistical indicators, and motivational factors that may influence the match outcome. The low and medium-risk tips offer more secure betting options, minimizing the chance of loss.