SPAIN: LaLiga – Round 14
1. Team Performances (General Statistics)
- Getafe:
- Strong in defense: Only conceded 11 goals this season, one of the best in La Liga.
- Struggles in attack: Scored only 8 goals, among the worst in the league.
- More stable at home: Their only win came here (2-0 against Alavés).
- XG (Expected Goals): 13.9, highlighting inefficient chance conversion.
- Real Valladolid:
- Weak in defense: Conceded 25 goals, the worst in the league.
- Average in attack: Scored 10 goals, but still insufficient for success.
- XG: 12.3, confirming issues with finishing.
- Particularly weak away from home (average 2.3 goals conceded).
2. Individual Player Performances
- Key players for Getafe:
- Mauro Arambarri: Top scorer (4 goals) with relatively high accuracy (xG: 4.5).
- David Soria: Goalkeeper with one of the best save percentages in the league.
- Defense: High AerialDuelsWon% (61.2%) for Omar Alderete.
- Key players for Valladolid:
- Raúl Moro: Top scorer (3 goals) but with an xG of only 2.1, suggesting some luck.
- Luis Pérez: Solid in defense but less involved in attacks.
3. Notable Patterns and Observations
- Valladolid’s defensive issues are likely to play a key role. This could be an opportunity for Getafe, despite their attacking inefficiencies.
- Both teams have low goal counts, suggesting a low-scoring match.
- Interesting that Valladolid has not won an away game so far.
Betting Recommendations
Low-Risk Tip
- Under 2.5 goals in the match
- Reason: Both teams struggle in attack, and Getafe’s defense is solid.
- Probability: 64.7%.
Odds: 1.45 – Safe Kelly: 2%
Medium-Risk Tip
- Over 4.5 yellow cards
- Reason: Both teams are fighting against relegation, likely to play aggressively.
- Probability: 70%.
Exact Score Prediction
Exact score: 1-0 in favor of Getafe
- Reason: Statistics suggest this is the most probable result.
- Probability: 14.5%.
Observations from Analysis
- Based on Getafe’s defense, a draw or a narrow win is realistic.
- The analysis supports a low-scoring game, with Getafe slightly favored.
- Valladolid’s away performance issues further reduce their chances of winning.