German Bundesliga Round 1 – August 24, 2024
Statistical Analysis and Related Observations:
- Freiburg’s Form and Defensive Problems: Freiburg started well in the DFB-Pokal, but they showed weak defense last season, conceding 58 goals, which was the 11th worst in the league. On the other hand, Stuttgart had the third-best attack last season and already showed in the DFL-Supercup that they can score. This suggests that Stuttgart will likely score against Freiburg, especially considering that Freiburg’s defense remains unstable.
- Impact of Injuries and Team Lineups: Freiburg may miss several key players (e.g., Matthias Ginter and Daniel-Kofi Kyereh), which could further weaken their defense. Stuttgart is also struggling with injuries, but they remain strong in attack, particularly considering the form of Demirović and Undav.
- Motivation and Form: Stuttgart showed high-level performance last season, and although they lost in the DFL-Supercup final, they are highly motivated to start the new season, as indicated by their statistics and team mentality. Freiburg, on the other hand, has a new coach, which could bring fresh energy, but long-term stability is questionable.
Low-Risk Tips:
- Over 2.5 Goals in the Match: Statistics indicate a high probability of more than three goals being scored in the match, especially due to Stuttgart’s attacking potential and Freiburg’s defensive weaknesses.
(Probability: 67%) Odds, 1.72 – Kelly: 2% - Both Teams to Score: Freiburg is usually effective at home, while Stuttgart is also strong in attack. Based on statistics and form, both teams are expected to score.
(Probability: 66%) Odds, 1.64 – Kelly 2%
Medium-Risk Tips: 3. Over 3.5 Cards in the Match: Considering both teams’ styles and the expected tight contest, 3-4 yellow cards are likely to occur.
Probability: 60-65% Odds, 1.55 – Kelly: 2%