GERMANY: Bundesliga – Round 3, September 14, 2024
Freiburg’s Performance:
Freiburg’s season has had mixed results so far. They secured a 3-1 victory against Stuttgart but lost 0-2 to Bayern Munich. According to expected goals (xG) data, Freiburg generated 3.1 xG, indicating that they created more scoring opportunities than they converted (2 goals). Ritsu Doan was one of their most active attackers, generating 1.1 xG and scoring 1 goal. Notably, the team was strongest on the left side, where Christian Günter and Ritsu Doan stood out.
The defense appears solid, particularly the central defensive pairing of Max Rosenfelder and Philipp Lienhart, who maintained a 90% passing accuracy, lost relatively few balls, and effectively neutralized opposing attacks. Goalkeeper Florian Müller’s performance was mixed: he conceded 3 goals in 180 minutes, but his post-shot xG (PSxG) showed a difference of -0.5, indicating that he should have conceded fewer goals based on the chances created.
Bochum’s Statistics and Current Form:
Bochum’s season started poorly, losing both of their Bundesliga matches. Their xG (1.7) is extremely low, indicating that they haven’t created many scoring opportunities. One of the main issues is the attackers’ inefficiency, especially Philipp Hofmann, who, despite taking 5 shots, only generated 0.34 xG, meaning he did not create many dangerous chances.
The defense hasn’t been much better: goalkeeper Patrick Drewes conceded 3 goals in 2 matches, and while his save percentage is 62.5%, he hasn’t made any game-changing saves. Felix Passlack and Maximilian Wittek performed well on the wings, but the central defense, particularly Erhan Mašović, has struggled to stop opposing attacks.
Low-Risk Tips:
- Freiburg to win more corners (Probability: 70%)
- Freiburg regularly controls possession and frequently builds attacks on the wings. Based on current statistics, Freiburg has won more corners than their opponents, while Bochum has been less effective in the final third. Freiburg earned 23 corners in their two Bundesliga matches, while Bochum only won 10. Therefore, Freiburg is more likely to win more corners.
Odds: 1.47 – Safe Kelly: 4%
- Freiburg to win (Probability: 60%)
- Statistically and based on their form, Freiburg is more likely to win, especially at home. Bochum’s weak attacking and defensive stats support this.
Odds: 1.74 – Safe Kelly: 2%