Fortaleza – Atlético Goianiense

Brasileiro (Brazil)

Analysis of Statistical and Expert Data

Fortaleza Statistics:

• Goals and xG: Fortaleza has scored 18 goals in 16 matches, averaging 1.13 goals per match. Their xG metric is 18.4, indicating that the team is performing as expected in terms of expected goals, although slightly underperforming relative to their xG. Their attacking play is stable but not outstanding.
• Defense and xGA: They have conceded 16 goals, with an xGA of 19.6. Their defense is slightly weaker based on xGA but overall matches the league average.
• Player Performance: Juan Martín Lucero has been outstanding with 7 goals and an xG of 2.3. Other notable players include Breno and Tomas Pochettino, who have provided 5 and 7 assists respectively.
• Passing Accuracy: They have an average passing accuracy of 75.2%, which is moderate, but they are stable in midfield, especially Tomas Pochettino and Felipe Jonatan, who play significant roles in building attacks.
• Form: They are in good form recently, with 4 wins and 1 loss in their last 5 matches.

Atlético Goianiense Statistics:

• Goals and xG: They have scored 13 goals, with an xG of 19.3. They significantly underperform relative to their expected goals, indicating poor finishing.
• Defense and xGA: They have conceded 24 goals, with an xGA of 19.5. Their defense is weak, conceding more goals than would be expected based on xGA.
• Player Performance: Luiz Fernando is the top scorer with 5 goals, but overall, the attacking lineup is weak. Goalkeeper Ronaldo has been stable.
• Passing Accuracy: They have a passing accuracy of 72.9%, which is low, particularly with deficiencies in defense and midfield.
• Form: They are in poor form, having lost 4 of their last 5 matches.

Summary of Expert Analysis

Experts believe Fortaleza is strong at home, while Atlético Goianiense struggles away, particularly with finishing attacks. Fortaleza is motivated to stay in the top part of the table, while Atlético Goianiense is fighting to avoid relegation.

Betting Tips and Risk Assessment

Low-Risk Tips:

1. Fortaleza to win (1.69x): The team is strong at home and in good form. (Low risk)
2. Under 3.5 goals (Low risk 1.27x), Under 2.5 goals (Medium risk 1.74): Both teams struggle to score.

Medium-Risk Tips:

1. Fortaleza -1.0 Asian handicap (2.22x): Fortaleza may dominate at home. (Medium risk)

Detailed Analysis and Recommendations

1. Fortaleza to win (Low risk):
   • Justification: Based on Fortaleza’s current form and home performance, they are highly likely to win. They have won 4 of their last 5 matches, while Atlético Goianiense has shown poor form.
   • Statistical Support: Fortaleza’s xG is 18.4, while Atlético Goianiense’s xGA is 19.5. This supports that Fortaleza creates more scoring opportunities and defends better.
2. Under 3.5 goals (Low risk), Under 2.5 goals (Medium risk):
   • Justification: Both teams have weaker attacking lines. Fortaleza averages 1.13 goals per match, while Atlético Goianiense scores only 0.76 goals per match.
   • Statistical Support: The xG metrics also support this tip: Fortaleza’s xG is 18.4, while Atlético Goianiense’s xG is 19.3. The low goal average and poor finishing metrics make it likely that there will be few goals in the match.
3. Fortaleza -1.0 Asian handicap (Medium risk):
   • Justification: Fortaleza may dominate at home and likely win by multiple goals. Atlético Goianiense is in poor form and performs particularly poorly away.
   • Statistical Support: Fortaleza averages 1.81 points at home, while Atlético Goianiense averages only 0.71 points away.

Conclusion: Fortaleza is likely to dominate this match considering their current form and home performance. Among low-risk tips, Fortaleza to win and under 2.5 goals seem the most secure. Among medium-risk tips, the -1.0 Asian handicap is also a good option.