Brasileiro, August 4, 2024
Analysis
Fluminense Statistics
Fluminense has had a weak performance in the 2024 season, currently sitting in 19th place in Série A with only 4 wins, 5 draws, and 10 losses. In their 19 matches, they have scored only 15 goals and conceded 24, resulting in a -9 goal difference. Their xG (expected goals) is 16.6, while their xGA (expected goals against) is 23.6, indicating a negative trend.
Key players include Ganso, who has contributed with 3 goals and 3 assists, and Kauã Elias, who has also scored 3 goals. The team’s attacking efficiency is low, as evidenced by several players, such as Germán Cano and Jhon Arias, scoring few goals throughout the season.
Bahia Statistics
Bahia is currently in 14th place in Série A for the 2024 season, with 5 wins, 5 draws, and 10 losses. They have scored 21 goals and conceded 25 in 20 matches, resulting in a -4 goal difference. Their xG is 21.1, while their xGA is 25.3, also indicating a negative trend.
Key players include Everaldo Stum, who is the team’s top scorer with 6 goals, and Jean Lucas, who has contributed with 3 goals and 5 assists. The team’s attacking play is somewhat more effective than Fluminense’s but still has shortcomings.
Expert Analysis
Experts note that Fluminense’s weak form in recent matches has further worsened the team’s situation. They particularly highlight the lack of attacking efficiency and defensive uncertainties. On the other hand, Bahia is also in poor form but shows somewhat better attacking play.
Betting Tips
Low Risk Tips
- Under 3.5 goals in the match (Low risk 1.25x), Under 2.5 goals (Low+ risk 1.71x) – Based on the data, both teams exhibit weak attacking play, so the match is likely to have few goals. (Low risk)
- Bahia win or draw (Low risk 1.78x), Bahia win (Medium risk 3.80x) – Bahia is in slightly more stable form, and based on Fluminense’s weak home performance, it’s likely that Bahia will at least draw. (Low risk)
Interesting Facts from Expert Analysis
- Fluminense has only won once in their last 5 matches, while Bahia has secured two victories.
- Fluminense’s attacking efficiency is significantly below the league average, which explains their poor ranking.
- Bahia has shown somewhat better attacking play, particularly due to Everaldo Stum’s form.
Final Remarks
Based on statistics and expert analyses, the safest betting tips are for a low-scoring match and a favorable result for Bahia. Given Fluminense’s weak form and lack of attacking efficiency, it is likely that Bahia will avoid defeat and may even win.