Brasileiro Match
In the preliminary analysis of the match between Flamengo and Criciúma, numerous important data and trends based on both teams’ performances must be considered. Below, I analyze the statistics of both teams in detail and the context provided by human experts to understand which betting tips might be the least risky.
Flamengo Statistical Analysis
Goals and Offensive Efficiency: Flamengo’s offensive power is strong, having scored 28 goals in 16 matches, averaging 1.75 goals per match. Among the attackers, Pedro stands out with 8 goals and 5 assists, contributing to a total of 13 goals. The xG (expected goals) value is 8.1, indicating that his performance meets expectations.
Defense and Goalkeeping Performance: However, there are weaknesses in defense, as they have conceded 17 goals in 16 matches. Goalkeeper Agustín Rossi has conceded 1.06 goals per match, which is not very favorable, especially for a team at the top of the league.
Passing and Ball Possession: Flamengo is strong in passing, with an 81.9% pass accuracy, and they also dominate in ball possession, often exceeding 50%. Gerson and Luiz Araújo are particularly important in this aspect, with 3.87 and 3.59 SCA90 (shot-creating actions per 90 minutes) indicators.
Criciúma Statistical Analysis
Goals and Offensive Efficiency: Criciúma’s attack is less efficient, scoring 22 goals in 15 matches, averaging 1.47 goals per match. Matheusinho is the team’s best attacker with 5 goals and 1 assist, while Arthur has scored 3 goals.
Defense and Goalkeeping Performance: However, their defense is weak, conceding 20 goals in 12 matches, averaging 1.71 goals per match. Goalkeeper Gustavo has a 72.3% save percentage, slightly better than Rossi’s, but still allowed a significant number of goals.
Passing and Ball Possession: Criciúma’s pass accuracy is lower at 76.6%, and they often fall short in ball possession, especially against stronger teams. Midfielders Barreto and Marcelo Hermes are key players, but their performance is not outstanding.
Expert Opinions
According to human experts’ analysis, Flamengo is motivated to win at home and maintain their position at the top of the table. Criciúma, on the other hand, has performed poorly in recent matches, especially away from home.
Low and Medium-Risk Tips
Low-Risk Tips:
- Flamengo Win (low risk 1.58x)
- Flamengo is strong at home and has been in good form in recent matches. Criciúma’s poor away performance also supports this.
- Flamengo Over 1.5 Goals (low risk 1.24x)
- Flamengo’s offensive power is strong, and they often score more than 1 goal per match. Criciúma’s weak defense makes it likely that they will concede multiple goals.
- Pedro to Score (medium risk 1.87x)
- Pedro is the team’s top scorer and is in good form, so it’s likely he will score again.
- Both Teams to Score (medium risk 1.96x)
- Although Flamengo’s defense is weak, they are strong in attack, while Criciúma is also capable of scoring, especially if they fall behind.
- Over 1.5 Goals in the Match (low risk 1.24x), Over 2.5 Goals in the Match (medium risk 1.76x)
- Both teams are capable of scoring, and Flamengo tends to have high-scoring matches.
Possible Players and Injuries
Considering the expected starting line-ups and injuries, Flamengo has a stronger squad. They have no significant injuries, while Criciúma may be without several key players.
Closing Thoughts
Overall, based on Flamengo’s strong offensive play and Criciúma’s weak defense, the low-risk tips of Flamengo’s win, over 1.5 goals scored, and Pedro to score seem to be the safest bets. Among medium-risk tips, it’s worth considering both teams to score and over 2.5 goals in the match.