EUROPE: Europa League – Group Stage – Round 8
📊 Team and Player Statistics
Midtjylland:
- Form: Inconsistent performance (LWLWLW – all competitions).
- Attack: Averaging 1.0 goals per match in the Europa League. Top scorers: Adam Buksa and Dario Osorio.
- Defense: Weak defensive stats. Concedes an average of 1.29 goals per match.
- Tactics: Plays a 4-4-2 formation, but sometimes switches to 4-2-3-1.
- Home Performance: Poor results in the Europa League (only 1 win in the last 4 home matches).
Fenerbahce:
- Form: More stable performance (DWWWDW – all competitions).
- Attack: Averaging 1.29 goals per match in the Europa League. Most dangerous players: Edin Džeko and En-Nesyri.
- Defense: Concedes an average of 1.14 goals per match.
- Tactics: Mourinho prefers a 4-3-3 formation.
- Away Performance: Won 3 of their last 6 Europa League away matches.
📌 Surprising and Interesting Statistics
- Midtjylland has never won against a Turkish team (previously lost 0-1 and 0-2 against Ankaraspor).
- Fenerbahce has goalkeeper issues – Livakovic is injured, Egribayat will start in goal.
- Midtjylland won with only 35% possession against Ludogorets – effective defensive play.
💰 Betting Tips
Low-Risk Bets
- Fenerbahce Draw No Bet (Asian Handicap 0) – Probability: 72%
- Fenerbahce won 3 of their last 6 away Europa League matches.
- Midtjylland has poor home form (only 1 win in their last 4 matches).
- Recommendation: Based on form and players, Fenerbahce is the favorite.
Odds: 1.52 – Kelly: 4%
- Both Teams to Score (BTTS) – Probability: 61.28%
- Both teams have defensive vulnerabilities.
- They have conceded a combined 2.3 goals per match on average in the Europa League.
- Recommendation: Riskier bet, but statistically justified.
Odds: 1.48 – Kelly: 2%
📌 Summary
- Fenerbahce is the favorite, but Midtjylland could surprise.
- Safest bet: X2 (Fenerbahce does not lose) and Over 1.5 goals.
- Goals are expected, and due to defensive mistakes, BTTS is likely.
- Fenerbahce win is probable, but Midtjylland’s counterattacks are dangerous.