Everton – Brentford

ENGLAND: Premier League – Round 12


1. Overview of Data

The uploaded statistical data allows for a detailed analysis of the performance of Everton and Brentford teams and players. Based on the data, the statistical performance of the teams is as follows:

  • Everton:
    • Poor attacking efficiency: only 10 goals in 11 matches.
    • Average expected goals (xG) value of 11.9, highlighting that attackers are failing to capitalize on opportunities.
    • Dwight McNeil and Dominic Calvert-Lewin have been relatively effective, but the team struggles to consistently score goals.
  • Brentford:
    • 22 goals scored and 22 conceded in 11 matches – high-scoring games.
    • Bryan Mbeumo stands out among the forwards with 8 goals.
    • Poor away performance: no points earned on the road this season.

According to the Everton-Brentford expert analysis, Everton could improve their chances at home, but Brentford’s attacking power and Everton’s weak form also provide opportunities for the visitors.


2. Strengths and Weaknesses of Teams and Players

Everton:

  • Strengths:
    • Strong home defense (few goals conceded at Goodison Park).
    • Creativity and experience from Dwight McNeil.
  • Weaknesses:
    • Poor attacking efficiency (no goals in 5 matches).
    • Low possession rates, which hinder offensive build-up.

Brentford:

  • Strengths:
    • High attacking efficiency (Bryan Mbeumo and Yoane Wissa).
    • Creating many opportunities (xG: 18.2).
  • Weaknesses:
    • Poor away form: losses in all away games so far.
    • Defensive problems (22 goals conceded).

3. Betting Tips

Moderate Risk Recommendations:

  1. Under 3 Goals in the Match (Asian Total Goals)
    • Reasoning: Everton’s weak attack makes fewer goals likely. Brentford’s away efficiency is also questionable.
    • Probability: 70.64%.
    Odds: 1.55 – Kelly: 3%
  2. Both Teams to Score
    • Reasoning: In 10 out of 11 Brentford matches, both teams scored. Everton plays tighter matches at home, but both teams scoring is likely.
    • Probability: 53.54%.
    Odds: 1.74 – Kelly: 2%
  3. Brentford Win or Draw (x2)
    • Reasoning: While Brentford’s away form is poor, they are stronger in attack than Everton.
    • Probability: Brentford win 25.13%, draw 24.5%.
    Odds: 1.57 – Kelly: 2%
  4. Bryan Mbeumo to Score
    • Reasoning: One of the season’s best-performing players with 8 goals.
    • Probability: 40-50%.
    Odds: 2.80 – Kelly: 0.5%

4. Surprising Statistics

  • Brentford has lost all their away matches but remains effective in attack.
  • Everton’s xG value (11.9) and actual goal output (10) show a slight difference, indicating issues in finishing chances.
  • Brentford’s matches feature one of the highest average goal counts in the Premier League.

5. Summary

Based on the data, a balanced match is expected, with the statistics and form giving Brentford a slight edge, particularly in attack. Everton, however, could boost their chances with their stable home defense and expert predictions. For betting, focusing on lower-risk markets like total goals or both teams to score is recommended.


Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *