SPAIN: LaLiga – Matchday 13
1. Team and Player Statistics Analysis
Espanyol Team Stats
- Goals: Espanyol has scored 15 goals and conceded 28 goals this season, which represents the second-worst defense in the league.
- xG and xGA: Espanyol averages 1.1 xG per match while allowing 1.7 xGA, supporting their weak defense.
- Formation: The team mainly plays in a 4-4-2 formation, which provides stability but offers limited attacking options.
Espanyol Player Stats
- Key Players:
- Javi Puado: The forward is in the best form with 5 goals and 1 assist.
- Alex Král: The defensive midfielder has won the most tackles for the team (70 tackles).
- Weaknesses: The players have a low xG+/- (e.g., Puado -11.7), indicating that the quality of Espanyol’s chances is poor.
Valencia Team Stats
- Goals: Valencia has scored only 13 goals so far, making it the third-worst attack in the league.
- Defense: The team concedes 1.5 goals on average per match (7th worst defense).
- Away Form: Valencia has lost 8 of its last 11 away matches, with just 3 draws.
Valencia Player Stats
- Key Players:
- César Tárrega: The center-back has scored 2 goals and has a 58.1% aerial duel win rate.
- Luis Rioja: The midfielder performs steadily but is not exceptional in attack.
- Weaknesses: Valencia’s goalkeeper, Mamardashvili, is unavailable, further weakening the defense.
2. Key Trends
- Espanyol’s home form is stronger: 4 wins in the last 7 home matches.
- Valencia’s away form is very weak: 8 losses in 11 matches.
- Both teams have low attacking potential: few goals expected (based on xG).
3. Recommended Betting Tips
Medium-Risk Tips
- Espanyol win or draw (1X):
- Reasoning: Espanyol is more stable at home, while Valencia has almost no wins away.
- Probability: 69%
Odds: 1.40 – Kelly: 1%
- Under 2.5 goals:
- Reasoning: Both teams have weak attacks (Espanyol: 15 goals, Valencia: 13 goals). The xG is also low, and the most likely outcome is 1-0 or 0-0.
- Probability: 69%
Odds: 1.51 – Kelly: 1%
4. Surprising Facts
- Valencia was last relegated from the Spanish top flight in 1986-87, but their current form brings this threat closer.
- Espanyol’s goalkeeper, Joan García, has made 20 saves so far and is ranked in the middle tier of the league for this stat.
Summary
- Espanyol is favored due to their home advantage and Valencia’s poor away form.
- The most likely outcome is a 1-0 Espanyol win.
- Few goals are expected, making low goals the safest betting tip.
Recommended Bets in Brief:
- Espanyol or Draw (1X) – 69%
- Under 2.5 goals – 69%