Brasileiro, August 18, 2024
Detailed Analysis
Based on the statistical analysis of the match between Criciúma and Vasco da Gama, several important conclusions can be drawn regarding the likely outcome of the match and the likelihood of certain events. First, it’s essential to examine both teams’ form, their recent performances, and their statistical indicators to better understand how the match is expected to unfold.
Analysis
Form and Recent Performances
Criciúma’s current performance is mixed. They have won two, lost two, and drawn one of their last five matches. Their xG (expected goals) ranges between 1.2-1.5, which is neither high nor low. This indicates that they typically create few but relatively dangerous chances.
Vasco da Gama, on the other hand, is in worse form, especially away from home. They have lost three, drawn one, and won just one of their last five matches. Their xG is also low, indicating that they create few chances and struggle to capitalize on them. Additionally, Vasco concedes more goals than they score, clearly showing weak defensive performance.
Offensive and Defensive Statistics
Criciúma’s attack is relatively stable but not overly creative, typical of mid-table teams. However, Vasco’s defense is particularly weak away from home, increasing Criciúma’s chances of success. Vasco concedes an average of 1.9 goals per game, while Criciúma’s home defense is somewhat more stable, allowing 1.5 goals on average.
Motivation and Other Factors
Home advantage is crucial for Criciúma, especially against a team that struggles on the road. Vasco urgently needs points as they are near the relegation zone, but their poor form and away performance make this a challenging task.
Betting Tips
Low-Risk Tips:
- Criciúma win, Draw No Bet – probability: 70%, 1.56x, Half Kelly: 8.2%
- Criciúma performs more consistently at home, and Vasco is weak away. A draw or home win is the most likely outcome.
- Under 2.5 goals – probability: 65%, 1.67x, Half Kelly: 6.35%
- Both teams have inefficient attacks, and their defenses are relatively stable, suggesting a low-scoring match.
- Over 4.5 yellow cards – probability: 80%, 1.51x, Half Kelly: 20%
- Both teams commit many fouls, and the yellow card count is high. Criciúma has already accumulated 60 yellow cards this season, so it is likely that at least 5 yellow cards will be shown during the match.
Interesting Facts
- Vasco historically does not perform well away at Criciúma, further supporting the likelihood of a Criciúma win or draw.
- Criciúma has not lost in their last four home matches, providing additional evidence of their stability at home.
In conclusion, Criciúma’s victory, Draw No Bet (DNB), seems to be the safest betting option, considering the current form, statistical data, and motivational factors. Additionally, considering the possibility of a low-scoring match also appears to be a low-risk bet.