ENGLAND: Premier League – Round 7 – October 6, 2024
Form and Motivation of the Teams
Chelsea is in strong form, having won 4 of their last 6 matches and only lost once. Their xG (expected goals) statistic is also impressive, totaling 12.1, which underlines their offensive strength. Nottingham Forest, while a tenacious team, has only secured one victory in their last 6 matches, with an xG of just 7.2, indicating fewer quality chances being created.
Chelsea’s motivation this season is to secure a place in the European Conference League, which suggests a more serious approach, even on home soil. Nottingham Forest is also fighting for their standing, but winning 3 points at Chelsea’s home seems an almost unreachable goal for them.
Attacking Potential and Defensive Stability
Chelsea’s forward, Cole Palmer, stands out with 6 goals and 4 assists, while for Nottingham, Chris Wood is the only significant scorer with 3 goals. Chelsea’s expected goals (xG) is 12.1 for the season, whereas Nottingham’s is only 7.2, highlighting a considerable difference in attacking potential between the two teams.
On the defensive side, Chelsea is solid, having conceded 7 goals and kept 2 clean sheets so far, a better record compared to Nottingham’s 5 conceded goals. Chelsea’s goalkeeper, Robert Sánchez, boasts an impressive 77.4% save rate, while Nottingham’s keeper, Matz Sels, has a 76.5% save rate, showing that both teams can handle difficult situations defensively, but Chelsea is slightly stronger.
Midfield Play and Progression
Chelsea’s midfield is outstanding, especially through Enzo Fernández and Moisés Caicedo, who together have completed 32 progressive passes this season. Nottingham’s midfielders, such as Morgan Gibbs-White and Ryan Yates, work hard but are less efficient in terms of passing accuracy and forward progression compared to Chelsea.
Injuries and Expected Lineups
The return of Christopher Nkunku is a key factor for Chelsea, while Nottingham can count on several key players, including Gibbs-White and Wood. Based on the expected lineups, Chelsea’s dominance will likely be felt both in midfield and attack.
Low-Risk Tips:
- Chelsea to win (Probability: 65%): Chelsea’s home form is stronger, and their attacking potential is significantly higher than Nottingham’s. They create many quality chances, making a home victory likely. Low risk.
Odds: 1.51 – Safe Kelly: 3%
- Chelsea over 1.5 goals (Probability: 55%): Chelsea currently averages 4.5 goals per game at home. Nottingham’s defense isn’t strong enough to stop Chelsea’s attacks. Medium risk.