ENGLAND: Premier League – Matchday 18
Analysis
Team form and statistics:
- Chelsea:
- They are unbeaten in their last 12 Premier League matches, although they failed to score in their last game against Everton.
- Their average possession is around 60%, indicating their dominant style of play.
- Key attacking players: Cole Palmer (11 goals, 6 assists) and Nicolas Jackson (9 goals).
- Their defense is solid, with a low xGA (expected goals against), thanks to goalkeeper Robert Sánchez and the strong defensive unit.
- Fulham:
- They are showing mixed form, having won only one of their last six matches.
- Their attack is less effective: Raul Jimenez and Alex Iwobi are the main goal scorers, but the team struggles to find the net.
- Their defense is not particularly strong: their xGA is higher than Chelsea’s, which points to their vulnerability.
Player statistics:
- Chelsea: In midfield, Enzo Fernández and Moisés Caicedo control the game, both with high ball recovery rates.
- Fulham: Antonee Robinson plays a key role in defense and attack, but Fulham struggles in aerial duels, which could be a weak point.
Trends and surprising observations:
- Chelsea is dominant at home, while Fulham historically struggles at Stamford Bridge.
- Based on previous encounters, it is more likely that Chelsea will score more goals.
Recommendations
Low-risk bets:
- Chelsea win: Probability: 67.57%
- Strong form, dominance at home, and Fulham’s poor results justify this bet.
Odds: 1.51 – Kelly: 2%
- Over 2.5 goals in the match: Probability: 70.69%
- Chelsea’s attacking line is effective, and Fulham’s defense tends to make mistakes.
Odds: 1.50 – Kelly: 2%
Medium-risk bet:
- Both teams to score: Probability: 62.33%
- While Fulham rarely scores many goals, Chelsea’s defense could face challenges at times.
Odds: 1.63 – Kelly: 1%
Observations from the analysis
- One of the most interesting statistics is Chelsea’s unbeaten run at home against Fulham, dating back to 1979.
- Fulham’s weak aerial duel performance could allow Chelsea to exploit this weakness from set pieces and free kicks.