BELGIUM: Jupiler League – Round 5 – September 26, 2024
Statistical Analysis
Cercle Brugge
Cercle Brugge’s current form is inconsistent, and their defense has not been outstanding, having conceded 15 goals in the last 7 matches (2.14 goals conceded per game), while only scoring 8 goals. This weak defense could be particularly worrying against Gent’s strong attacking line. Goalkeeper Warleson has a relatively low save percentage of 65.9%, and it is uncertain if he will be able to stop Gent’s attacks.
Their attacking line has not been very effective either: Kévin Denkey has scored 2 goals in 7 matches, while Thibo Somers and Bruninho have each scored only 1 goal. Their xG (expected goals) is also low, at 1.36 goals per match, indicating that their attackers don’t pose a significant threat to the goal.
However, the team’s motivation could be significant, as they are playing at home, which can be an emotional boost. Still, they lost their previous home matches against Genk and Mechelen, raising questions about their mental state.
Gent
Gent is in much stronger form. In their last 7 matches, they have scored 12 goals and conceded only 7, indicating better defense, especially considering that goalkeeper Davy Roef has achieved a save percentage of 85.1%. Their attacks are also far more efficient: Omri Gandelman and Max Dean stand out in scoring. Gandelman has scored 3 goals in 5 matches, while Dean has recorded 1 goal and 1 assist in just 1.9 matches worth of playtime. Gent’s attacking xG is 1.71 goals per game, significantly better than Cercle Brugge’s.
Their defense is also strong, as Gent has conceded only 1.0 goals per match and has been able to stabilize their defense even against tougher opponents like Antwerp and Mechelen.
Expert Analysis Supplement
Experts highlight that Gent’s team is motivated and in stable form, especially in this away game against Brugge. Gent has a strong attacking machine and is capable of exploiting defensive mistakes. Gent’s midfielders, such as Gandelman and Delorge, are highly creative, allowing for quick attacking buildups. The analysis, however, mentions that Cercle Brugge is attempting to regain form, but based on their current state, this is unlikely to succeed.
Betting Suggestions
Low Risk
- Gent win with a draw no bet (Asian handicap 0): Gent’s current form, attacking, and defensive statistics clearly show a better picture compared to Cercle Brugge. Additionally, Gent’s goalkeeper, Davy Roef, delivers a much more reliable performance, making it less likely they will concede many goals.
Odds: 1.65 – Safe Kelly: 2%
- Both teams to score – While Gent’s defense is strong, Cercle Brugge is playing at home and might score at least one goal, especially if Denkey or Somers picks up form.