Celta Vigo – Real Madrid

SPAIN: LaLiga – Round 10, October 19, 2024

Celta Vigo Analysis:

In the 2024-2025 season, Celta Vigo has had mixed results. They started the season well but have suffered several defeats in recent matches. Their most recent victory, 1-0 against Las Palmas, shows that their defense is capable of stabilizing, but their offensive efficiency is not outstanding, as reflected by their xG value (0.8 in the last match). Iago Aspas, with 4 goals and 2 assists this season, is a key player in their attack. His performance will be crucial, especially if Borja Iglesias, who has also scored 4 goals, is not in form. In defense, Oscar Mingueza and Carl Starfelt have shown stable play, but they are not entirely reliable, as the team has conceded 15 goals in 9 matches.

Real Madrid Analysis:

Real Madrid is dominating La Liga this season, having scored 19 goals and conceded just 6. Kylian Mbappé and Vinícius Júnior lead the attack, both in excellent form, with Mbappé contributing 5 goals and Vinícius 4. The defense is also stable, with Éder Militão and Antonio Rüdiger ensuring the backline, while Thibaut Courtois has performed excellently, as the team concedes just 0.67 goals per match. Their attacking statistics are also impressive: their xG is 16.9, while their opponents’ xG is only 7.4, showing that their attacks are effective and they give few chances to opponents.

Key Factors:

  • Celta Vigo’s weak attack: In recent matches, they have only scored 1-2 goals per game, and their xG is also low (usually around 0.8-1.5), indicating that their attacks are not very effective. This could be a challenge against Real Madrid, who have shown very organized defense.
  • Real Madrid’s attacking potential: The form of Mbappé and Vinícius will be crucial, especially given Celta Vigo’s defense’s tendency to make mistakes. Real Madrid scores more than 2 goals per match, and if Celta Vigo cannot slow them down, it could easily become a one-sided match.
  • Celta Vigo’s defense: They have managed to concede few goals in some home matches, but against a team like Real Madrid, it will be difficult. Their xGA is 10.9, which shows they give opponents quite a few opportunities.

Low-Risk Tips:

  1. Real Madrid win (low risk) – Based on Real Madrid’s dominant performance and Celta Vigo’s weak attack, an away win seems likely. Real Madrid’s form, attacking potential, and defensive organization provide a clear advantage.
    • Probability: 70%.

Odds: 1.62 – Safe Kelly: 10%

  1. Real Madrid to score more than 1.5 goals (low risk) – Real Madrid scores more than 2 goals per match, and Celta Vigo’s defense is not strong enough to stop them.
    • Probability: 75%.

Odds: 1.54 – Safe Kelly: 8%

Summary:

Based on the analysis, the most likely outcome is a Real Madrid victory, with them scoring more than 1.5 goals. Celta Vigo is expected to struggle in attack and score fewer than 1.5 goals.


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