ITALY: Serie A – Round 18
Analysis
Team Stats:
Cagliari:
- Performance: Poor season in the relegation zone, with 4 losses in the last 6 matches.
- Offensive Stats: Less than 1 goal per match on average (0.88), low xG (expected goals) value.
- Defense: High xGA (expected goals against) value (1.5+), indicating vulnerable defense.
- Formation: Primarily a 3-5-2 formation, often too defensive.
Internazionale:
- Performance: Dominant season, 67.99% win probability for this match.
- Offensive Stats: 2.5+ goals per match on average, strong xG statistics.
- Defense: Fewest goals conceded in the league.
- Formation: Flexible switching between 3-5-1-1 and 4-3-1-2; dynamic attacking play.
Player Stats:
Cagliari:
- Roberto Piccoli: Team’s top scorer (4 goals), but lacking offensive support.
- Defense: Yerry Mina provides stability, but often loses duels.
Internazionale:
- Lautaro Martinez: 9 goals against Cagliari, one of the best-performing attackers of 2024.
- Marcus Thuram: In excellent form, his speed and technique could cause problems for Cagliari.
Suggestions
Low-Risk Bet:
- Internazionale to win: High 67.99% probability, dominant form, Cagliari’s weak defense.
- Explanation: Strong attackers (Martinez, Thuram), defensive stability.
- Probability: 68%.
Odds: 1.47 – Kelly: 3%
Medium-Risk Bet:
- Under 3.5 goals: Inter will likely control the match.
- Explanation: Cagliari’s weak attack, Inter’s solid defense.
- Probability: 64.56%.
Odds: 1.51 – Kelly: 2%
Interesting Facts
- Inter Milan’s attacking dominance: Most minutes leading in matches (683), while Cagliari has the fewest (99).
- Martinez and Thuram duo: Key players in Inter’s dominance.
- Cagliari’s form decline: Their last three matches were all losses.
Based on the above analysis, Inter’s victory seems almost certain, but betting on alternative match events (goals, goal scorers) could also be well-founded.