ENGLAND: Premier League – Round 18
Analysis: Brighton & Hove Albion vs Brentford
Team Form Overview
- Brighton: After a strong start to the season, their form has declined; they have not won in their last 5 matches (WDLDLD). Playing at home could be an advantage, as they have lost only once at home this season.
- Brentford: Stronger at home, but particularly weak away. They have managed just one away point all season.
Offensive and Defensive Stats
- Brighton: Both teams have scored in 16 of their last 20 matches, highlighting weak defense and strong attack. Their xG (expected goals) remains reliably high at an average of 1.7 per match.
- Brentford: Ineffective in attack away from home but excel at home. Their xGA (expected goals against) is notably high away from home.
Key Players
- Brighton: Joao Pedro and Kaoru Mitoma are key attacking players. Both possess strong individual stats but defensive weaknesses could hurt the team.
- Brentford: Bryan Mbeumo is highly prolific (10 goals) and one of their most dangerous attackers. Nathan Collins excels in defense and aerial duels (68.9% success rate).
Surprising Stats
- The last two matches between Brighton and Brentford produced a total of 9 goals.
- Brighton have never lost to Brentford at home in the Premier League.
Betting Recommendations
Low-Risk Tips
- Both Teams to Score (BTTS):
- Explanation: Both teams scored in 80% of Brighton’s matches, and Brentford’s attack is strong enough to follow suit.
- Probability: 61.47%
Odds: 1.54 – Kelly Criterion: 2%
- Over 2.5 Goals:
- Explanation: Both teams tend to score often, with defensive lapses contributing to high-scoring matches.
- Probability: 67.79%
Odds: 1.48 – Kelly Criterion: 2%
Interesting Facts and Observations
- Brentford’s goalkeepers have made few saves away from home, leading to a high number of goals conceded.
- Several key Brighton players are injured, which may affect their performance.