EUROPE: Champions League – Group Stage – Round 3
Brest statistics:
Brest’s performance in this year’s Champions League has been surprising, particularly with their 4-0 victory against Salzburg. Their xG (expected goals) in both matches was higher than their opponents’, suggesting they’re making good use of their opportunities. Notable among their attackers is Abdallah Sima, who has scored 3 goals and has an xG of 1.6 over two matches. Another key player is midfielder Hugo Magnetti, who has 0.5 xG and 0.2 xA (expected assists), showing solid form. In defense, goalkeeper Marco Bizot has been outstanding with an 88.9% save rate, providing significant security behind the backline.
In their two matches so far, Brest has received only 5 yellow cards, which is relatively low, and Leverkusen has earned only 2 yellow cards thus far. This suggests that we’re unlikely to see many rough fouls in this match.
Bayer Leverkusen statistics:
Leverkusen has been highly dominant in both of their Champions League matches, securing a 4-0 victory against Feyenoord and a 1-0 win against Milan. Their expected goals (xG) were 1.7 and 1.8, clearly indicating attacking dominance. Florian Wirtz and Victor Boniface stand out in the attacking department, with Wirtz having 2 goals and 1.0 xG, while Boniface has scored 1 goal and recorded 1.1 xG. The defense is also strong, with goalkeeper Lukáš Hrádecký yet to concede a goal and boasting a 100% save rate. Additionally, Leverkusen has allowed fewer chances to their opponents, with an xGA (expected goals against) of 0.8 and 1.0.
Connections and analysis:
- Leverkusen shows balanced performance in both attack and defense, while Brest is primarily focused on attacking but may be vulnerable against a stronger team.
- Based on statistics, Leverkusen is likely to dominate the match, especially in terms of possession and attacking plays. Their passing accuracy is also notable, with Piero Hincapié achieving 91.8% accuracy.
- While Brest has performed well so far, they are likely to face challenges against Leverkusen’s organized defense and quick counter-attacks.
Betting Tips – Low and Medium Risk:
- Leverkusen to win (low risk, 70% probability):
Based on Leverkusen’s dominant form and Brest’s likely struggle, the German team is expected to win.Odds: 1.52 – Safe Kelly: 5% - Under 3.5 goals (low risk, 65% probability):
Leverkusen defends well, and Brest is unlikely to create many chances. Based on the statistics, neither team is prone to high-scoring games, making a low-goal match probable.Odds: 1.56 – Safe Kelly: 1%
Summary:
Based on the statistics, Leverkusen is the favored team, especially considering their attacking and defensive stats. While Brest has dangerous attackers, the German team’s stable defense will likely keep them at bay. Low-risk tips include Leverkusen’s victory and fewer than 3.5 goals.