Bournemouth – Tottenham

ENGLAND: Premier League – Matchday 14

Team Statistics Overview

• Bournemouth:
  • Form: Inconsistent performance, winning three of their last four home games, including victories against top teams such as Arsenal (2-0) and Manchester City (2-1).
  • Strengths: Creative attacking play (e.g. Evanilson and Kluivert’s effectiveness) and strong defensive performances against big teams.
  • Weaknesses: Vulnerable defense, with only one clean sheet this season.
• Tottenham:
  • Form: Inconsistent, but with 28 goals scored this season, the best in the Premier League.
  • Strengths: High xG (expected goals) value, with attackers like Son Heung-min and Brennan Johnson in excellent form.
  • Weaknesses: Several key injuries, such as Richarlison and Romero, and a weak defense.

Player Statistics

• Bournemouth:
  • Evanilson: Won three penalties in the last match, a key player in the attack.
  • Kluivert: Set a Premier League record with three penalty goals in a single match.
  • Milos Kerkez: Active in attack on the left, but vulnerable in defense (only 6% aerial duel win rate).
• Tottenham:
  • Son Heung-min: A versatile attacker capable of threatening from both the left and center.
  • Brennan Johnson: Scored 6 goals this season, in stable form.
  • Pedro Porro: Supports the attack well, with two goals and one assist, alongside high defensive stats.

Betting Tips

Low-Risk Tips:

1. Both teams to score (69% probability):
   • Bournemouth has scored at least two goals in their last four matches, while Tottenham has scored in every away match this season except one.
   • Reasoning: Both teams have strong attacking forces, and their defenses are prone to mistakes.
   Odds: 1.39 – Kelly: 2%
2. Over 2.5 goals in the match (69.37% probability):
   • Tottenham’s matches average more than 2.5 goals per game, and Bournemouth also tends to play high-scoring games.
   • Reasoning: Based on the data, the match is expected to have many goals.
   Odds: 1.43 – Kelly: 2%

Medium-Risk Tip:

3. Tottenham win or draw (X2) (62% probability):
   • According to the statistical model, Spurs are more likely to win, but the outcome is uncertain given Bournemouth’s strong home form.
   • Reasoning: Tottenham has better attacking power, and the presence of key players could give them an advantage.
   Odds: 1.48 – Kelly: 1%

Interesting Observations

1. Historical Advantage: Tottenham has won 10 out of 14 Premier League meetings against Bournemouth, with the highest goals per match average (2.5 goals/match) in those encounters.
2. Unique Performance: Kluivert’s effectiveness as a penalty taker is rare in the Premier League.
3. Defensive Problems: Both teams tend to make mistakes in defense, as shown by the expected goals against (xGA) statistics.