ITALY: Serie A – Round 16
Team and Player Statistical Analysis
Bologna Statistical Overview
- Form and Results:
- Very strong at home, having lost only 1 of their last 24 home matches.
- In this Serie A season: 4 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss.
- Goals:
- Riccardo Orsolini is the top scorer with 6 goals.
- The team averages 1.1 goals scored and 1 goal conceded per match.
- Key Players:
- Remo Freuler: A solid midfielder preparing for his 250th Serie A match.
- Santiago Castro: A young forward who has already scored 4 goals this season.
Fiorentina Statistical Overview
- Form and Results:
- On an 8-match winning streak in Serie A.
- Exceptional away form, not conceding in the last 30 minutes of matches.
- Goals:
- Moise Kean is having an outstanding season with 9 goals so far.
- The team averages 1.8 goals scored and only 0.9 goals conceded per match.
- Key Players:
- Robin Gosens: A key player on the left flank with 2 goals and 2 assists.
- Dodô: A right-back providing consistent defensive support.
Surprising Facts and Interesting Observations
- Fiorentina is the only team in the top 5 leagues that hasn’t conceded a goal in the last 30 minutes of matches.
- Bologna is almost unbeatable at home, losing only 1 of their last 24 home matches.
- According to statistical models, the match outcome is extremely close: Fiorentina win probability: 35.92%, Bologna win: 35.67%, Draw: 28.4%.
Betting Tips (By Risk Category)
Low-Risk Tip
- Under 2.5 Goals in the Match
- Reasoning: Bologna’s strong home defense, Fiorentina’s solid last-half-hour defensive record.
- Probability: 59.76%.
Odds: 1.71 Kelly 2%
Medium-Risk Tips
- Both Teams Not to Score (BTTS – No)
- Reasoning: Bologna struggles to score against stronger teams; Fiorentina’s defensive stability.
- Probability: 53.43%.
Odds: 1.96 Kelly 1%
- Moise Kean to Score in the Match
- Reasoning: Kean is in excellent form with 9 goals so far.
- Probability: 45%.
Odds: 3.00 Kelly 0.5%
Summary
Statistics suggest a tight, tactical battle between the two teams. Focus on low-scoring markets and standout player performances for betting. The outcome is highly uncertain, so prioritize safer bets, such as total goals or player-specific events.