TURKEY: Super Lig – Round 15
1. Team Statistics
- Beşiktaş:
- They have secured four home wins this season but have shown a significant drop in form recently, especially in defense, due to the absence of Gabriel Paulista and Felix Uduokhai through injury.
- Beşiktaş’s attack, led by Ciro Immobile, remains dangerous. Immobile currently leads the Super Lig’s top scorer race.
- In recent matches, their ball possession has decreased (averaging 56%), which may suggest a weaker midfield performance.
- Fenerbahçe:
- Fenerbahçe’s attack is the most productive in the league (35 goals in 13 matches), while their defense is also the strongest (12 goals conceded).
- Mourinho’s team remains undefeated in away matches this season, providing a significant advantage for the derby.
- Dušan Tadić is a key player: 7 goals and 5 assists. His role in building attacks is crucial.
2. Player Statistics
- Key Beşiktaş Players:
- Ciro Immobile: Averages 2.4 shots per match, with 45% on target.
- Gedson Fernandes: Outstanding defensive midfielder with 21 successful tackles this season.
- Key Fenerbahçe Players:
- Dušan Tadić: Exceptional creativity (57 crosses) and precise finishing.
- Dominik Livaković: Conceded only 12 goals in 13 matches, providing a stable defensive base.
Betting Tips
Low-Risk Tip:
- Both Teams to Score:
- Reasoning: Beşiktaş’s attack (Immobile) remains capable of scoring, while Fenerbahçe’s offense is almost guaranteed to find the net.
- Probability: 60%.
Odds: 1.56 – Kelly: 2%
Medium-Risk Tip:
- Over 2.5 Goals:
- Reasoning: Both teams frequently participate in high-scoring matches.
- Probability: 58%.
Odds: 1.61 – Kelly: 2%
Interesting Facts
- Beşiktaş are winless in their last five matches, placing significant mental pressure on the team.
- Fenerbahçe scored at least two goals in each of their last three matches.
- Mourinho has achieved great results in away matches against rivals as a coach.
Summary
Based on statistics and analysis, Fenerbahçe are the favorites to win, but Beşiktaş’s home advantage and Immobile’s presence can balance the odds. For betting, moderate-risk options are recommended.