EUROPE: Champions League – Group Stage – Round 3
Benfica’s situation
Benfica’s current form appears strong, especially at home. In their most recent match, they beat Atlético Madrid 4-0, showcasing their attacking potential. According to the statistics, Benfica’s attackers, such as Kerem Aktürkoğlu and Ángel Di María, are performing exceptionally well. Aktürkoğlu has a scoring rate of 1.13 goals/match, while Di María has created several scoring chances with an xG+xA of 1.2. These numbers indicate that Benfica’s offensive play is efficient, with multiple players able to create significant goal-scoring opportunities.
Their defense is also solid, having conceded just 1 goal in two matches. Nicolás Otamendi and Anatolii Trubin are performing well in the back, with Trubin holding a save percentage of 66.7%. Their xG-based stats are stable too: they have conceded only 1.3 xG over 2 matches, which shows that they rarely allow quality chances for their opponents.
Feyenoord’s situation
Feyenoord seems like a more unpredictable team. According to the stats, they lost one of their two matches 0-4, while winning the other 3-2. These results show that their defense is not entirely stable; they have conceded 6 goals in 2 matches, giving them a 3.0 GA/90 ratio, and their defensive quality appears weak based on xG data (+0.6 PSxG), suggesting that their goalkeeper (Timon Wellenreuther) has often been unable to prevent expected goals.
However, their attack can be potentially dangerous, with players like Antoni Milambo and Igor Paixão capable of creating goal-scoring opportunities. The team has an xG+xA of 1.73, which isn’t outstanding but suggests they could pose a threat if they manage to structure their play properly.
Team comparison
Benfica is the stronger team at home and is statistically in a better position than Feyenoord. Their defense is solid, and their offense is varied, with several players capable of creating opportunities. On the other hand, Feyenoord’s defense is vulnerable, and while their attack may be dangerous, their defensive weaknesses will make it difficult for them against Benfica, especially away from home.
Betting analysis
Low-risk tip:
- Over 2.5 goals (65%): Both teams have attacking potential, and Feyenoord’s weak defense increases the likelihood of a high-scoring match. Low-risk tip.
Odds: 1.56 – Safe Kelly: 3%
Medium-risk tips:
- Kerem Aktürkoğlu to score (55%): Aktürkoğlu is currently one of Benfica’s top scorers, and based on his form, he has a good chance to score. Medium-risk tip.
Odds: 2.80 – Safe Kelly: 1%
- Over 4.5 yellow cards (60%): Based on both teams’ stats, it’s likely to be a tense match, which could increase the number of cards. Medium-risk tip.
Odds: 1.62 – Safe Kelly: 1%
In summary, based on Benfica’s current form and statistical metrics, they are likely to dominate the match, while Feyenoord’s defensive weaknesses could provide scoring opportunities for the home team.