Benfica – Bologna

EUROPE: UEFA Champions League – Group Stage – Round 6

1️⃣ Team Statistics Comparison

🦅 Benfica Team Statistics:

• Strong attacking play: Benfica scores an average of 2 goals per match in the Champions League, with an xG (expected goals) value also high (1.3-4.4 range).
• Solid defense: The team’s defense appears to be strong, as they have conceded few goals in multiple matches.
• Possession: Generally, their possession is between 53-63%, indicating controlled play.

🔴 Bologna Team Statistics:

• Weak attacking play: Bologna scores few goals, and their xG is low (0.6-1.3).
• Defensive issues: In several matches, they have conceded at least 2 goals (e.g. against Napoli, Lille).
• Possession: Mostly lower possession (48-56%), indicating that their opponents dominate the game.

2️⃣ Player Statistics and Key Players

🦅 Benfica Key Players:

1. Kerem Aktürkoğlu (FW):
   • 5 matches, 3 goals
   • In good form, expected to play a key role in attack.
2. Angel Di Maria (FW):
   • Experienced player, a threat with his assists and chance creation.
3. Orkun Kökçü (MF):
   • 2 goals and his creativity in midfield is key.

🔴 Bologna Key Players:

1. Riccardo Orsolini (FW):
   • 6 goals, one of the team’s most successful players.
   • Doubtful for the match due to injury risk.
2. Santiago Castro (FW):
   • 4 goals, 3 assists, promising young striker.
3. Jhon Lucumí (DF):
   • Most tackles and aerial duels won, important defensive figure.

3️⃣ Tactical Analysis and Trends

🦅 Benfica Strengths:

• Strong attack, with multiple goal scorers.
• Possession dominance, especially at home.
• Late goals, showcasing the team’s mental strength.

🔴 Bologna Weaknesses:

• Poor finishing, struggling to score under pressure.
• Defensive mistakes, particularly towards the end of matches.

4️⃣ Betting Tips

🟢 Low-Risk Tip:

1. Benfica to win
   • Probability: 67%
   • Benfica is in better form, playing at home, while Bologna struggles away.

Odds: 1.61 – Kelly: 3%

🟡 Medium-Risk Tips:

2. Under 3.5 goals
   • Probability: 66.32%
   • Due to Bologna’s weak attack, they may fail to score, so no more than 3 goals are expected in this match.

Odds: 1.44 – Kelly: 1%

3. Kerem Aktürkoğlu to score
   • Rationale: Aktürkoğlu is one of the team’s top scorers, and the opposition’s defense is vulnerable.

Odds: 2.45 – Kelly: 0.5%

5️⃣ Interesting Facts from the Analysis

• Bologna has yet to score from an open play situation in the Champions League.
• Benfica has won only 1 out of their last 6 home CL matches, raising doubts.
• Di Maria is currently in 4th place on the all-time assist leaders in the Champions League.

⚽ Summary: Based on the statistics and analysis, Benfica is the likely winner. Bologna is struggling away from home, so it is advisable to focus on safer betting options, such as Benfica to win and the match to have over 2.5 goals.