EUROPE: Champions League – Group Stage – Matchday 2 – October 2, 2024
Previous Matches and Form:
Benfica has been undefeated for four matches and is performing excellently under their new coach, Bruno Lage. In their last five matches across all competitions (WDWWWW), they have shown a solid form, including a 5-1 victory over Gil Vicente. Their attacking play has been extremely effective, scoring 17 goals in recent games, which indicates high offensive potential.
On the other hand, Atletico Madrid is also in good form (WWWDWD), although their performance has been slightly more inconsistent. Their defense is solid, having conceded just three goals in the last eight matches, suggesting a strong defensive strategy. Atletico’s playing style is based on balanced defense and counter-attacks.
Statistical Analysis:
- xG (Expected Goals) Data: Both teams have performed similarly in their previous matches. Benfica recorded 1.3 xG in their last match, while Atletico Madrid ended their previous game against RB Leipzig with 1.7 xG. This indicates that both teams are capable of creating chances, but Benfica may be more dangerous at home.
- Attackers and Goals: Benfica’s forward, Kerem Aktürkoğlu, is in excellent form and averages 1.0 goals per 90 minutes. Conversely, Atletico Madrid’s top striker, Antoine Griezmann, is also a threat, having produced 1.01 xG in the last match.
- Defense: Benfica’s defensive performance is also strong, especially under the leadership of Otamendi, while Atletico Madrid is known for their tight defense, led by Giménez and Le Normand.
Human Analysis:
Human analysis highlights that both teams are in good form. Atletico Madrid’s defense is solid, but their attack often struggles to capitalize on opportunities, especially in away games. The analysis indicates that both teams place a significant emphasis on defense, particularly Atletico Madrid.
Motivation and Strategy: With their new coach, Bruno Lage, Benfica is highly motivated, especially when playing at home. Their motivation is high, and the home advantage may favor them. For Atletico Madrid, earning points will be the primary goal, and they are likely to play a defensive game and rely on counter-attacks.
Player Statistical Analysis and Comparison:
- Benfica’s Attacking Line: Aktürkoğlu, Di Maria, and Pavlidis are crucial. Aktürkoğlu’s excellent form and goal-scoring ability could be decisive.
- Atletico’s Attacking Line: Griezmann and Correa are the most dangerous players, and they could be decisive in counter-attacks.
Low-Risk Betting Tips:
- Under 3.5 Goals + Over 3.5 Yellow Cards: While both teams can score, their strong defenses may limit the number of goals. According to statistics and expert analysis, both teams may engage in a tough defensive battle, often leading to yellow cards.
Odds: 1.80 – Safe Kelly: 3%
Medium-Risk Tips:
- Both Teams to Score (54.74%): Both teams are capable of scoring in the match, especially considering that both teams’ attacking players are in good form. (Low Risk)
Odds: 1.70 – Safe Kelly: 1%
- Draw (24.3%): Based on statistics and the teams’ form, a close match is expected, where neither side can dominate. (Medium Risk)
Odds: 3.40 – Safe Kelly: 1%
Final Assessment:
The match could end in a draw, but Benfica’s attacking strength at home might give them a significant advantage. Atletico Madrid’s defense, however, will pose a tough challenge for them. Among the betting tips, the safest is for both teams to score, while it’s also worth keeping an eye on yellow cards.