BELGIUM: Jupiler League – Round 11
Beerschot VA’s Situation
Beerschot has had a very difficult season, managing only two draws in their last 10 matches while suffering eight defeats. The team conceded 26 goals, averaging 2.6 goals per game, while scoring only 10. Their xG (expected goals) figure is 7.7, which is also low, indicating that they are struggling to create genuine chances. Their defense is equally weak, conceding 26 goals against an xGA (expected goals against) of 24.1, which means they are conceding more than expected. Players like Charly Keita have not provided a single assist, and their individual performances have not been outstanding.
Among Beerschot’s players, Ryan Sanusi and Thibaud Verlinden have delivered some positive performances, but the team as a whole has clearly underperformed. The high number of yellow cards (20) and one red card further suggests they are struggling with positioning issues, which increases the vulnerability of their defense.
Anderlecht’s Situation
Anderlecht is in much better form, winning five, drawing five, and losing just once in their last 10 matches. Their xG stands at 13.3, while their xGA is 14.9, indicating solid performances both in attack and defense. Goalkeeper Colin Coosemans has been outstanding, consistently outperforming expectations with a +6.9 PSxG (post-shot expected goals), which points to excellent defensive efficiency. In attack, the pair of Kasper Dolberg and Mario Stroeykens has been effective, scoring 4 goals together, while their xG suggests they are creating plenty of chances.
Motivation and Expert Opinions
Expert analyses show that Anderlecht has also been excelling in their Europa League matches, which boosts their confidence. Their strong international experience puts them in a mentally strong position. In contrast, Beerschot is facing psychological challenges, with repeated losses taking a toll on the players, making it hard for them to break out of this negative spiral.
Low-risk tip:
- Anderlecht win (65-70% probability) – Low risk
- Given Anderlecht’s current form and defensive stability, they are highly likely to win. Beerschot’s defensive issues further worsen their chances.
Odds: 1.52 – Safe Kelly: 2%
Medium-risk tip:
- Under 3 goals (Asian total goals) – Medium risk (65% probability)
- Anderlecht’s recent matches have seen few goals (an average of 1.2 goals per game), while Beerschot struggles to score.
Odds: 1.70 – Safe Kelly: 1%
Summary
Based on the statistics and current form, Anderlecht is the clear favorite, and the match is likely to see few goals. The number of yellow cards could be high, especially due to Beerschot’s aggressive playing style.