SPAIN: LaLiga – Round 8 – September 29, 2024
This match between Atlético Madrid and Real Madrid is a special La Liga clash, with both teams having strong statistical performances and human analysis insights. My goal is to provide tips based on statistical data and the information shared by analysts that carry low or medium risk, while offering a detailed analysis of the match.
Statistical Analysis
Atlético Madrid
Atlético Madrid has a strong defensive system, having conceded only 3 goals in 7 matches this season, which means an average of 0.43 goals conceded per match. Goalkeeper Jan Oblak is performing excellently, with a save rate of 83.3%, indicating that he is reliable in goal. Offensively, Atlético has delivered varied performances, scoring 11 goals in 7 matches, with Antoine Griezmann and Alexander Sørloth being the most reliable scorers.
Real Madrid
Real Madrid’s offensive power is outstanding, particularly in the form of Kylian Mbappé and Vinícius Júnior, who have together scored 8 goals so far this season. Mbappé’s 5 goals and 1.09 xG indicate that he will likely continue to be a threat. In defense, goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois is also performing well, with a 66.7% save rate, but Real Madrid has conceded more goals than Atlético, which suggests that their defense is not always stable.
Observations from Human Analysis
Analysts have noted that Real Madrid’s motivation is particularly high this season, as they have had to come back from difficult situations multiple times. Atlético Madrid, on the other hand, relies more on their solid defense and tactics. The analysts highlighted that the match is expected to be a tactical battle, with less open attacking play.
Interesting Observations
Both teams are strong in set pieces and corner kicks. Atlético Madrid has executed a total of 110 corners this season, while Real Madrid has taken 106. In terms of yellow cards, both teams are inclined towards rough play, with Atlético having accumulated 8 yellow cards so far, and Real Madrid 14.
Low-Risk Bet:
- Both teams to score (60% probability) – Both teams have strong offensive power, and while Atlético Madrid defends well, Real Madrid has the ability to break through even the most solid defenses. At the same time, Real Madrid tends to concede goals.Odds: 1.65 – Safe Kelly: 2%
Medium-Risk Bets:
- Real Madrid to have over 4.5 corners (65% probability) – Real Madrid’s attacking play is dominant, especially on the wings with Vinicius Júnior and Mbappé. This typically results in many corners. In recent matches, they have achieved several corners, and it is likely that Atlético Madrid will focus on defense, leading to more corners.Odds: 1.62 – Safe Kelly: 1%
- 1st half draw – In previous head-to-head matches, a draw at halftime has been common, as both teams tend to wait for the second half before taking more risks. Previous encounters also support this trend.Odds: 2.16 – Safe Kelly: 1%
The match is expected to be tight, as both teams are strong defensively but can also surprise in attack. Real Madrid’s offensive power is particularly dangerous, but Atlético Madrid’s stable defense poses a significant challenge. The safest bet is that both teams will score, as both sides are motivated for success and capable of breaking through the defense.