SPAIN: LaLiga – Matchday 22
Team and Player Statistics Analysis
Atlético Madrid – Team Performance
- Home Form: Atlético Madrid is extremely strong at home, earning 27 points from 11 matches and remaining unbeaten.
- Goal Scoring: Atlético has a solid attacking game, scoring 40 goals in 21 matches, averaging 1.9 goals per match.
- Defense: With just 18 goals conceded, they have one of the best defenses in the league.
- Possession: They hold an average of 58% possession, reflecting their dominant playstyle.
- Key Players: Griezmann leads the team with 11 goals and 5 assists, while Rodrigo De Paul (though suspended) plays a crucial role in midfield.
Mallorca – Team Performance
- Away Form: Mallorca struggles away from home, losing 5 of their last 10 away matches.
- Lack of Goals: The team has scored only 19 goals in 21 matches, the third-worst attacking record in the league.
- Defensive Issues: They have conceded 9 goals in their last four matches, highlighting defensive weaknesses.
- Key Players: Vedat Muriqi (5 goals) and Dani Rodríguez (3 goals, 2 assists) are their most dangerous players.
Key Expert Analysis Findings
- The last three head-to-head La Liga matches ended in a 1-0 win for Atlético Madrid.
- Mallorca has lost all its matches since the beginning of the year, showing poor form.
- Atlético Madrid has a 65.58% chance of winning, a draw has a 21.6% probability, while Mallorca’s victory is only 12.79%.
- Atlético’s key midfielder, Rodrigo De Paul, is suspended, which might cause some tactical difficulties.
Low-Risk Bet
- Atlético Madrid Win (Probability: 65.58%)
- Atlético remains unbeaten at home, while Mallorca is in poor form. The last three meetings also ended in Atlético victories.
Medium-Risk Bet
- Atlético Madrid to Win & Under 3.5 Goals (Probability: ~75%)
- Atlético is likely to win, but a high-scoring match is not expected due to Mallorca’s weak attack.
Surprising and Interesting Observations
- Mallorca is dangerous from set-pieces: Their limited goals often come from free kicks or corners.
- Atlético’s home defense is elite: They have conceded just 5 goals at home this season, one of the best records in the league.
- Mallorca’s goals conceded per match has increased drastically: They have allowed 9 goals in their last four matches, signaling defensive problems.
Summary
Atlético Madrid is the clear favorite, especially at home. Mallorca’s poor form and weak attack mean they are unlikely to put up strong resistance.