Atletico GO – Botafogo

Brasileiro, August 4, 2024, 01:00 (Central European Time)

In analyzing the match between Atlético Goianiense and Botafogo, the following conclusions and tips can be drawn based on statistics and expert analysis, with particular attention to minimizing risk.

Statistical Analysis

Atlético Goianiense

1. Goals and Attacks:
   • Atlético Goianiense has scored only 16 goals in 20 matches this season, averaging 0.8 goals per match. This indicates that their attacking play is not very effective.
   • Their top scorer is Luiz Fernando, with 6 goals. His performance is crucial for the team.
2. Defense:
   • They have conceded 31 goals in 20 matches, an average of 1.55 goals per match. This shows that their defense is vulnerable, especially against stronger attacking teams.
   • Goalkeeper Ronaldo’s statistics (66.2% save rate) indicate mixed performance, with frequent attempts against him.
3. Yellow and Red Cards:
   • Atlético’s players have accumulated 57 yellow and 8 red cards, indicating an aggressive and tough playing style. This increases the likelihood of more yellow cards being issued during the match.
4. XG (Expected Goals):
   • Their xG value is 21.5, compared to an xGA of 23.2, indicating they have conceded more goals than expected based on their chances.

Botafogo

1. Goals and Attacks:
   • Botafogo has scored 21 goals so far this season, showing slightly better attacking play than Atlético Goianiense.
   • Tiquinho Soares is the team’s top scorer with 4 goals. The team has multiple goal scorers, indicating a more balanced attacking play.
2. Defense:
   • They have conceded 18 goals in 19 matches (1 goal per match), indicating better defensive performance compared to Atlético Goianiense.
   • Goalkeeper John has a 72% save rate, providing a more reliable defensive backbone.
3. Yellow and Red Cards:
   • Botafogo’s players have received 53 yellow and 5 red cards, also indicating expected tough tackles and yellow cards in the match.
4. XG (Expected Goals):
   • Their xG is 20.3, while their xGA is 20.9, which is close to their actual goal difference.

Expert Analysis

Human experts highlight that Atlético Goianiense is going through a difficult season, particularly with their shaky defense. The players’ motivation is declining, which could favor Botafogo. Experts emphasize Botafogo’s strong attacking play, particularly through Tiquinho Soares and Jefferson Savarino, who could play key roles in the match outcome.

Tips

Low and Medium Risk

1. Botafogo win or draw (Low risk 1.27x), Botafogo win (Medium risk 2.12x):
   • Botafogo is in better form and has a stronger team, making it likely they will secure at least one point.
2. Both teams receive at least 2 yellow cards:
   • Atlético Goianiense and Botafogo players frequently receive yellow cards. Based on their aggressive play and previous match statistics, this is a low-risk bet.
3. Atlético Goianiense under 1.5 goals (Low risk 1.31x), under 0.5 goals (Medium risk 2.49x):
   • Given Atlético Goianiense’s weak attack and Botafogo’s strong defense, it is likely Botafogo will keep a clean sheet.
4. Less than 3.5 goals in the match (Low risk 1.21x), less than 2.5 (Medium risk 1.62x):
   • Considering Atlético Goianiense’s weak attack and Botafogo’s strong defense, many goals are unlikely.

Interesting Facts

• Botafogo has shown more consistent performance this season, while Atlético Goianiense has issues in both defense and attack.
• Experts highlight that Botafogo’s attack can exploit Atlético Goianiense’s defensive mistakes.

Summary

In the match between Atlético Goianiense and Botafogo, based on statistics and expert analyses, the most likely events are a high number of yellow cards from Atlético Goianiense, and a strong chance for Botafogo to win and keep a clean sheet. These tips are low and medium risk, considering both teams’ current form and statistics.