ITALY: Serie A – Round 14
Team Statistics and Trends
- AS Roma Team Statistics:
- Form: Roma is in poor form, with 4 losses and only 1 point in their last 5 Serie A matches, marking their worst start of the century.
- Attacking Play: Based on xG (expected goals), Roma has underperformed this season. For instance, in their loss against Napoli, they produced only 1.9 xG but failed to score.
- Defensive Issues: Roma’s defense has conceded 20 goals in 13 matches, reflecting poor organization.
- Key Players: Lorenzo Pellegrini plays a critical creative role, while Mats Hummels’ experience could be vital in stabilizing the defense.
- Atalanta Team Statistics:
- Form: Atalanta is in excellent form, winning their last 7 matches and climbing to the top spots with 28 points so far this season.
- Attacking Potential: Led by Mateo Retegui, their attack is exceptional; the striker leads the scoring chart with 12 goals.
- Defensive Solidity: Based on xGA (expected goals against), Atalanta displays strong defensive performances.
- Key Players: Charles De Ketelaere poses a significant threat with his creativity and scoring potential.
Player Comparisons
- Artem Dovbyk (AS Roma): 4 goals, but struggling this season.
- Mateo Retegui (Atalanta): 12 goals, showing outstanding performance.
- Defending: Obite N’Dicka (Roma) and Berat Djimsiti (Atalanta) are key defensive players, with Atalanta statistically stronger in this area.
Key Expert Analysis:
- Atalanta’s offensive effectiveness contrasts Roma’s poor form.
- Atalanta excels away from home, losing only once in their last 10 visits to Rome.
- Claudio Ranieri is trying to stabilize Roma, but the challenge is significant.
Betting Tips
Low-Risk Tips
- Atalanta Draw or Win (X2)
- Reasoning: Atalanta’s strong form versus Roma’s struggles.
- Probability: 70%.
Odds: 1.38 – Kelly: 2%
Medium-Risk Tips
- Both Teams to Score – Yes (54.31%)
- Reasoning: Atalanta’s attack and Roma’s home play suggest goals on both sides.
- Probability: 54%.
Odds: 1.66 – Kelly: 1%
Interesting Observations
- Atalanta’s Attack: Mateo Retegui is the first Atalanta player to score 12 goals in such a short time.
- Roma’s Defensive Problems: Lack of defensive stability and tactical clarity impacts their performance.
- Historical Form: A loss for Roma would mark their first streak of 4 consecutive Serie A defeats in 16 years.
Summary
Based on Atalanta’s current form and offensive potential, they are favorites. However, Roma could still cause an upset at home, albeit less likely. Bettors should consider alternative markets (e.g., total goals, both teams to score) for higher profitability.