SOUTH AMERICA: World Cup Qualifier – Round 7, September 6, 2024
Key Observations:
- Argentina’s Dominant Form: Argentina has won five of their last six matches and only lost once. Additionally, their defense is solid, conceding only 2 goals while scoring 8.
- Chile’s Poor Performance: Chile has only won one of their last six matches, suffering three defeats. Their attack has been weak, with only 2 goals scored and 7 conceded.
- Absences and Formations: Messi and Di Maria are absent for Argentina, but the team still boasts a strong attack with Lautaro Martínez and Julián Álvarez leading the line. On Chile’s side, the absence of Alexis Sánchez and Diego Valdés is a significant weakening.
Betting Tips (Low and Medium Risk):
- Argentina Win – Low Risk
- Assessment: Based on Argentina’s dominant home form and Chile’s poor performance, Argentina is clearly the favorite. Analysis gives them a 60.92% chance of winning.
- Statistical Support: Argentina’s strong defense and attack, along with Chile’s weak offensive statistics (only 0.33 goals per game), make it likely that Argentina will secure the three points.
- Probability: 60.92%
- Odds: 1.4 – Safe Kelly: 4%
- Total Goals: Under 2.5 – Medium Risk
- Assessment: Argentina’s matches have seen few goals (8 in 6 matches), while Chile also plays low-scoring games (2 goals in 6 matches).
- Statistical Support: The most likely outcome, according to the analysis, is 1-0 in favor of Argentina, supporting the possibility of fewer goals.
- Probability: 55.08%
- Odds: 1.88 – Safe Kelly: 1%
Tipster’s Suggested Bet Builder:
- Argentina Win + Under 3.5 Goals
- Odds: 2.05 – Safe Kelly: 2%