Ajax – Beşiktaş

EUROPE: Europa League – Group Stage – Round 1 – 26th September 2024

Ajax Analysis

1. Statistical Analysis: Based on Ajax’s recent matches, the team has shown stability in the attacking section. Their average goal output hovers around 2 goals per match, especially when playing at home. Their xG (expected goals) is between 1.57 and 2.92 per game, meaning they are efficient in the attacking third, even if they don’t always capitalize on their chances.Defensively, Ajax is relatively stable, conceding just 0.75 goals per match, reflecting strong defensive organization. Opponents’ average xG is around 1.08, indicating that they limit opponents’ opportunities.Key players for Ajax include Bertrand Traoré, who brings creativity to the attack, along with Kenneth Taylor and Remko Pasveer, who play vital roles in defense and goalkeeping. Josip Šutalo performs well in defensive duties, while Jorrel Hato and Chuba Akpom are goal-scoring threats.
2. Expert Opinions: According to experts, Ajax will be motivated at home as the Europa League holds great importance for the club. The support from home fans is particularly significant and can enhance the team’s performance.

Beşiktaş Analysis

1. Statistical Analysis: Beşiktaş’ strong attacking performance is noteworthy, especially regarding Ciro Immobile, who has already scored four goals this season. The team is highly efficient in attack, with an average of 2.20 goals per match, indicating a strong offensive potential. Their xG ranges between 1.80 and 3.40, suggesting they create many dangerous chances.However, their defense shows some vulnerability, conceding an average of 1 goal per match, with opponents’ xG around 1.20, suggesting that they can be breached at times. Key defensive figures for Beşiktaş include Gabriel Paulista, who brings experience, and goalkeeper Mert Günok, with a 75% save rate.
2. Expert Opinions: International competition is an important motivation for Beşiktaş, as participating in the Europa League enhances the club’s international prestige. Experts highlight that the team’s attacking power could be decisive, particularly depending on Ciro Immobile’s form. However, they are prone to defensive mistakes, especially away from home.

Low-Risk Tips:

1. Over 2.5 goals in the match (60-65% probability): Both teams have strong attacking units, and based on xG metrics, several goals are expected from both sides.Odds: 1.72 – Safe Kelly: 2%
2. Both teams to score (65-70% probability): Ajax has a strong home attack, and Beşiktaş is capable of converting chances, especially with Immobile in form.Odds: 1.65 – Safe Kelly: 2%

Medium-Risk Tips: 3. Over 3.5 yellow cards (60% probability): The intensity of the match and the physicality of both teams suggest that multiple yellow cards will be issued.

Odds: 1.57 – Safe Kelly: 1%

4. Over 8.5 corners in the match (70% probability): Both teams are active in attack and create many chances, leading to numerous corners.Odds: 1.65 – Safe Kelly: 1%

Overall, the match may be difficult to predict, but an increase in goals and yellow cards is expected. Team motivation and the form of key players could be decisive.