ENGLAND: Premier League – Round 11
1. Comparison of Attacking and Defensive Capabilities
- Crystal Palace has not excelled in attack this season. Their current xG (expected goals) is 12.3, while they have scored only 7 goals in 10 matches, indicating low efficiency in front of goal. The team’s shooting efficiency is around 33.1%, which is average, but their finishing ability is relatively low. Key players include Jean-Philippe Mateta, with 3 goals, and Eberechi Eze, who is also active in attack.
- Fulham, on the other hand, shows slightly better attacking statistics. They have scored 14 goals in 10 matches, with an xG of 15.1, indicating better utilization of chances. Raúl Jiménez stands out as a top scorer (4 goals), and Adama Traoré also plays a significant role in attack with 5.0 xG and 2.8 goals.
- Defensively, Palace is slightly weaker, with more goals conceded (13) and a 71.7% save rate through Dean Henderson. Fulham’s defense is somewhat more stable, with an average of 1.3 goals conceded per match, and Bernd Leno is a key defensive figure with a 68.3% save rate.
2. Possession and Passing Performance
- Crystal Palace has relatively balanced possession statistics but struggles with chance creation, as reflected in their passing and shot creation metrics (SCA – 24.40). This indicates that although they attempt to build attacks, they find it challenging to create dangerous opportunities.
- Fulham, on the other hand, has better progressive passing stats (214 progressive passes), showing that they can push attacks forward more effectively and create opportunities. This is also reflected in their high PrgP (progressive passes) count, which helps them advance play through midfield.
3. Yellow Cards and Fouls
- Crystal Palace has consistent yellow card statistics, as their players are not particularly prone to fouling. Therefore, it is less likely that they will receive many yellow cards in this match.
- Fulham, however, is more prone to fouls, especially in midfield where Sander Berge and Alex Iwobi frequently commit fouls. This increases the likelihood of several Fulham players receiving yellow cards.
4. Key Players and Form
- For Crystal Palace, Marc Guéhi and Dean Henderson are key defensive figures, while Mateta and Eze are the main attacking threats. However, they struggle with finishing, so if Fulham adopts a tight defense, Palace may find it hard to create goal-scoring chances.
- For Fulham, Raúl Jiménez and Adama Traoré are the most important attackers, regularly taking shots on goal and creating dangerous situations. Defensively, Calvin Bassey and Kenny Tete are reliable, and Bernd Leno also provides strong goalkeeping support.
Low-Risk Tip:
- Both teams to score (60% probability):
- Based on Fulham’s attacking line, particularly Jiménez and Traoré’s form, it is likely that they will score. Crystal Palace’s defense is vulnerable and has already conceded multiple goals at home this season.
Odds: 1.77 – Safe Kelly: 3%
Medium-Risk Tip:
- Over 4.5 cards (50% probability):
- Given Fulham’s aggressive style, especially in midfield, it is likely that several yellow cards will be issued.
Odds: 1.89 – Safe Kelly: 1%
Conclusion
This match is expected to be a hard-fought encounter where Fulham’s attackers may create more opportunities than Palace. Based on the overall statistics, a low-goal difference match is anticipated, with Fulham potentially dominating, but Crystal Palace may also find the net.