🇩🇪 Freiburg – Mainz

GERMANY: Bundesliga – Round 9

Characteristics of Freiburg’s Team:

Goals and xG (Expected Goals):

  • Freiburg has scored more goals than expected based on their xG, indicating efficient finishing of their chances.
  • Key player Vincenzo Grifo has scored 3 goals and provided 5 assists, with a combined xG+xA of 4.2, showcasing high effectiveness.

Defense and Goalkeeping Performance:

  • Goalkeeper Noah Atubolu has conceded 8 goals in 6 matches, with a GA90 (Goals Against per 90 minutes) of 1.33, which is acceptable but has room for improvement.

Key Players’ Performance:

  • Besides Grifo, Ritsu Doan stands out in attack with 4 goals and an xG of 3.1.
  • In defense, Christian Günter and Philipp Lienhart are solid presences, contributing significantly with clearances and high ball-handling accuracy.

Characteristics of Mainz’s Team:

Goals and xG:

  • Jonathan Burkardt leads with 5 goals, exceeding his xG of 3.0, indicating high performance.
  • Based on xG, Mainz is less efficient in attack, often missing more chances.

Defense and Goalkeeping Performance:

  • Goalkeeper Robin Zentner has conceded 13 goals with a GA90 of 1.62, higher than Freiburg’s, indicating defensive weaknesses.

Team Dynamics:

  • Midfielder Nadiem Amiri has scored 2 goals and provided 2 assists, with an xG+xA of 2.8, marking him as a key player for Mainz.

Low-Risk Tip:

1. Freiburg over 1.5 goals – The team averages more than 1.6 goals per match, and Mainz’s high goals-against average supports this. Probability: ~70%

Odds: 1.64 – Safe Kelly: 3%

Medium-Risk Tip:

2. Both teams to score: Yes – Both teams have strengths and weaknesses in attack and defense, suggesting a goal-rich match based on statistics. Probability: ~65%

Odds: 1.71 – Safe Kelly: 2%

Insights from the Analysis:

  • Freiburg performs better at home, while Mainz’s away form is inconsistent, supported by xG data.
  • Analysts highlight the teams’ motivation, especially with recent performances.

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