GERMANY: Bundesliga – Round 9
Characteristics of Freiburg’s Team:
Goals and xG (Expected Goals):
- Freiburg has scored more goals than expected based on their xG, indicating efficient finishing of their chances.
- Key player Vincenzo Grifo has scored 3 goals and provided 5 assists, with a combined xG+xA of 4.2, showcasing high effectiveness.
Defense and Goalkeeping Performance:
- Goalkeeper Noah Atubolu has conceded 8 goals in 6 matches, with a GA90 (Goals Against per 90 minutes) of 1.33, which is acceptable but has room for improvement.
Key Players’ Performance:
- Besides Grifo, Ritsu Doan stands out in attack with 4 goals and an xG of 3.1.
- In defense, Christian Günter and Philipp Lienhart are solid presences, contributing significantly with clearances and high ball-handling accuracy.
Characteristics of Mainz’s Team:
Goals and xG:
- Jonathan Burkardt leads with 5 goals, exceeding his xG of 3.0, indicating high performance.
- Based on xG, Mainz is less efficient in attack, often missing more chances.
Defense and Goalkeeping Performance:
- Goalkeeper Robin Zentner has conceded 13 goals with a GA90 of 1.62, higher than Freiburg’s, indicating defensive weaknesses.
Team Dynamics:
- Midfielder Nadiem Amiri has scored 2 goals and provided 2 assists, with an xG+xA of 2.8, marking him as a key player for Mainz.
Low-Risk Tip:
1. Freiburg over 1.5 goals – The team averages more than 1.6 goals per match, and Mainz’s high goals-against average supports this. Probability: ~70%
Odds: 1.64 – Safe Kelly: 3%
Medium-Risk Tip:
2. Both teams to score: Yes – Both teams have strengths and weaknesses in attack and defense, suggesting a goal-rich match based on statistics. Probability: ~65%
Odds: 1.71 – Safe Kelly: 2%
Insights from the Analysis:
- Freiburg performs better at home, while Mainz’s away form is inconsistent, supported by xG data.
- Analysts highlight the teams’ motivation, especially with recent performances.