GERMANY: Bundesliga – Round 9
Statistical Overview
- Goals and xG (Expected Goals) Indicators:
- Leverkusen has achieved a remarkably high xG (expected goals) value this season (17.6), underscoring their attacking efficiency. Key players like Victor Boniface and Florian Wirtz have excelled in goals and assists. For instance, Boniface averages 0.97 goals per match, while Wirtz has also been highly effective in creating attacking opportunities.
- Stuttgart also brings a strong offensive force with a 15.6 xG value, but defensive lapses have led to weaker performance, particularly in terms of goals conceded (an average of 2.00 goals per game). Forwards like Deniz Undav and Ermedin Demirović have both contributed multiple goals this season, bolstering Stuttgart’s attacking play.
- Defense and Goalkeeper Performance:
- Leverkusen’s defense has been more stable than Stuttgart’s, with fewer goals conceded and a lower GA (Goals Against) metric (1.87). Jonathan Tah and Edmond Tapsoba are performing outstandingly in defense, consistently effective in blocking attempts.
- Stuttgart has more defensive weaknesses, with more frequent errors, and goalkeeper Alexander Nübel’s higher goals-against metric points to Stuttgart’s disadvantage. Nübel’s save percentage is 63.4%, which may not be enough for a high-stakes match.
- Passing and Possession Stats:
- Leverkusen dominates possession and passing accuracy (86.4%), allowing them to control the game’s tempo. Granit Xhaka and Wirtz play critical roles in this, being both highly accurate passers and creative contributors to attacks.
- Stuttgart is less effective in maintaining possession, with a lower passing accuracy (84.1%), which could be a disadvantage during the match. Midfielder Angelo Stiller is a key player, though the team faces more challenges overall in passing.
- Corner Kicks and Yellow Cards:
- Leverkusen typically earns more corner kicks (averaging 7 per match), creating dangerous situations near the goal. Stuttgart also tends to earn multiple corners.
- Stuttgart defenders and midfielders, especially Julian Chabot and Josha Vagnoman, are prone to fouls, which could lead to several yellow cards.
Low Risk
- Both teams to score – Probability: 65% (Low Risk)
- Given both teams’ attacking stats, it’s likely both will score. Leverkusen’s offensive prowess and Stuttgart’s defensive vulnerabilities increase this likelihood.
Odds: 1.46 – Safe Kelly: 4%
Medium Risk
- Over 9.5 Corners – Probability: 60% (Medium Risk)
- Based on the stats for both teams, it’s expected that they will attack actively, likely reaching or exceeding 10 corners.
Odds: 1.67 – Safe Kelly: 2%
- Over 3.5 Yellow Cards – Probability: 60% (Medium Risk)
- With a physical playing style and defensive focus, it’s expected that there will be multiple yellow cards throughout the match.