EUROPE: Champions League – Group Stage – Round 3
Statistical Analysis
Atalanta
Atalanta is in strong form, having won one of their two Champions League matches (3-0 against Shakhtar) and drawing the other (0-0 against Arsenal). A key factor is their solid defense: they have conceded zero goals in two matches, which is impressive. Goalkeeper Marco Carnesecchi has shown a 100% save rate, making him a particularly reliable point in defense.
In attack, Ademola Lookman and Raoul Bellanova have performed well, with Lookman recording 1 goal and 1 assist, while Bellanova also scored. The team’s creativity is strong: Lookman leads with a 3.67 SCA (Shot-Creating Actions) statistic. Other key players such as Zappacosta and Djimsiti play vital roles in building attacks.
Celtic
Celtic’s season has been inconsistent, as they achieved a big win against Slovan Bratislava (5-1) but suffered a heavy defeat against Dortmund (1-7). Their defense has shown significant weaknesses, having conceded 8 goals in two matches, with goalkeeper Kasper Schmeichel recording only a 60% save rate. This is especially concerning when facing a strong attacking team like Atalanta.
However, their attack has been effective: Daizen Maeda and Kyogo Furuhashi have combined for three goals. Celtic’s attackers are fast and effective, especially on counterattacks. However, their defensive vulnerability, especially under high pressure, could pose a serious challenge.
Expert Opinions
Experts emphasize that Atalanta is strong at home, especially in defense, and it is likely that Celtic’s defensive problems will give Atalanta multiple scoring opportunities. Experts believe Celtic will primarily rely on fast counterattacks, especially through Maeda and Furuhashi. Motivation is strong on both sides, as advancing from the group stage is crucial.
Low-Risk Tip:
- Atalanta win – Given Celtic’s weak defense and Atalanta’s strong home form, the Italian team is expected to dominate. Probability: 70% (low risk).
Odds: 1.47 – Safe Kelly: 3%
- Over 3.5 yellow cards in the match – Champions League matches are usually intense, and both teams’ physical playing styles suggest more fouls can be expected. Probability: 60% (low risk).
Odds: 1.75 – Safe Kelly: 4%
Summary
Atalanta is expected to dominate, especially at home, while Celtic’s defensive weaknesses may continue to be a problem. An Atalanta win is a low-risk betting option, while more goals are expected, making this a medium-risk tip. Paying attention to yellow card bets is also advised.