Defensa y Justicia – Rosario Central

ARGENTINA: Torneo Betano – Round 17

Defense and Goalkeeping Performance

Defensa y Justicia’s defensive statistics have been inconsistent this season. The team has conceded 23 goals in 16 matches, averaging 1.44 goals per match. Their goalkeeper, Cristopher Fiermarín, has conceded an average of 1.7 goals in 10 matches, which is relatively high, while the players forming the defensive line (such as Santi Ramos Mingo and Emanuel Aguilera) have not provided outstanding defensive performances. The number of goals conceded and the defenders’ performance suggest that they might struggle to close down Rosario’s attacks.

According to human analysis, Defensa y Justicia needs to stabilize its defense if they want to approach this match seriously. Nevertheless, their motivation is high as the season is nearing its end, and they aim to secure as many points as possible.

Attacking Play and Expected Goals (xG)

One crucial statistical indicator in attacking play is the number of expected goals (xG). Defensa y Justicia generates an average of 1.78 xG per match, indicating their ability to create scoring opportunities, but their finishing is often inaccurate. This supports the human analysis that the team’s efficiency in front of the opponent’s goal is weak. Their main attacking threats could be Aaron Nicolás Molinas, who has scored 4 goals and provided 1 assist in 8 matches, and Gabriel Alanís, who is also effective in offensive plays.

Against Rosario Central, who have strong defensive metrics (1.31 goals conceded per match), it’s likely that Defensa y Justicia will have a hard time breaking through. However, considering Rosario’s recent struggles, where they conceded multiple goals, it’s reasonable to expect Defensa y Justicia to capitalize on a few scoring opportunities.

Special Focus: Yellow Cards and Corners

In addition to predicting the match outcome, it’s worth considering the number of yellow cards and corners. Defensa y Justicia players, such as Santi Ramos Mingo and Luciano Ramón Herrera, are prone to picking up yellow cards (with 5 and 4 yellow cards respectively this season), so at least 2-3 yellow cards can be expected from them. The statistics indicate a tense match, increasing the likelihood of yellow cards.

In terms of corners, Defensa y Justicia tends to play an aggressive attacking game, leading to a high number of corners. They have averaged 6 corners per match recently, so a high number of corners is expected, especially if the team plays with high motivation, as suggested by the human analysis.

My Tips:

Low-risk Tips:

  1. Over 1.5 Goals in the Match (probability: 70% – low risk)
    • Defensa y Justicia’s defense is not the strongest, and Rosario can capitalize on defensive mistakes.
    Odds: 1.55 – Safe Kelly: 1%
  2. Rosario Central Over 0.5 Goals (probability: 65% – low risk)
    • Rosario has better attacking statistics and is likely to find the net during the match.
    Odds: 1.57 – Safe Kelly: 2%
  3. Rosario Central Win or Draw (X2) (probability: 65% – low risk)
    • Rosario has better defensive statistics and could easily hold on for a point away from home.
    Odds: 1.51 – Safe Kelly: 2%

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