EUROPE: Europa League – Group Stage – 2nd Round – October 3, 2024

Beşiktaş Analysis

Based on statistical data, Beşiktaş has shown somewhat inconsistent form in the Europa League so far. During the 0-4 loss against Ajax, the team’s xG (expected goals) was only 0.6, indicating that they struggled to create chances. Their defense also lacked reliability, allowing an xGA (expected goals against) of 2.2. This could be a significant issue, especially against a strong attacking team like Eintracht Frankfurt, which has shown much more stable form in its matches.

Another issue is that several Beşiktaş players have underperformed compared to their expected performance levels. For example, Ciro Immobile, who played only 45 minutes against Ajax, failed to make a significant impact. This raises concerns about the effectiveness of the attacking unit, especially considering that the team has not been particularly successful in their recent matches.

The defense has also been struggling. Players like Gabriel Paulista and Jonas Svensson achieved a pass accuracy of 87%, which is not bad, but they made few progressive passes during attack-building phases. Furthermore, the Beşiktaş team registered a total of 631 touches in the last match, but only 124 of those were in the attacking third, indicating a difficulty in reaching the opponent’s goal.

Eintracht Frankfurt Analysis

Eintracht Frankfurt appears to be much more effective in both attack and defense. In their matches so far, they have scored 11 goals and provided 9 assists, which is an impressive performance. Notably, Omar Marmoush has been outstanding, with 6 goals and 3 assists in Bundesliga and Europa League matches. His xG is 3.5, indicating that he consistently creates high-quality scoring opportunities. This poses a clear threat to Beşiktaş, whose defense has already shown vulnerabilities.

Frankfurt’s style of play is dynamic and progressive. Statistically, the team has completed 30,634 meters in progressive passes in their matches so far, indicating a strong focus on building attacks quickly and effectively. This quick style of play can be particularly dangerous against a slower-build team like Beşiktaş.

Tactical Observations and Motivation

Human analysis suggests that Beşiktaş’s motivation could be questionable, especially after the heavy loss to Ajax. On the other hand, Eintracht Frankfurt is in strong momentum, especially ahead of an upcoming match against Bayern Munich in the Bundesliga, which further boosts their motivation.

Eintracht is expected to rely on its aggressive attacking style, while Beşiktaş will likely focus more on defense to avoid further heavy losses. Statistics show that Frankfurt is capable of dominating possession and launching quick counterattacks, which could pose serious problems for Beşiktaş.

Betting Tips by Risk Level

Low-Risk Tip:

1. Over 2.5 goals in the match – Probability: 65% – Frankfurt’s attacking play has been exceptionally effective in the matches so far, and Beşiktaş’s defense has been weak. Therefore, it is likely that several goals will be scored.

Odds: 1.64 – Safe Kelly: 2%

Low-risk betting suggestion:

2. Frankfurt draw or win (X2) + Over 1.5 goals – Frankfurt is in strong form, while Beşiktaş has shown uncertain performances so far. There is little chance that Frankfurt will lose.

Odds: 1.80 – Safe Kelly: 2%

Medium-Risk Tip:

3. Omar Marmoush to score – Probability: 65%
   Marmoush has been in excellent form and is likely to score again. His chances of scoring are high, considering his xG value and Beşiktaş’s weaker defense.

Odds: 2.70 – Safe Kelly: 0.5%

Conclusion

In summary, the statistical data and human analysis clearly show Frankfurt’s superiority, especially in attack. The low-risk tips focus on the number of goals and Frankfurt’s unbeaten status, while the medium-risk tips target Frankfurt’s victory and Marmoush’s scoring.