ITALY: Serie A – Round 5 – September 23, 2024
Statistical and Expert Analysis
Atalanta’s Offensive Strength:
Atalanta’s attacking statistics are outstanding. Retegui and Pašalić are regularly involved in the attacks, with the former scoring 4 goals in 4 matches. According to the xG (expected goals) statistics, Retegui’s efficiency is 1.16 goals per match, which is significantly higher than his teammates. The team’s xG averages 1.94 goals, which poses a serious attacking threat to Como, whose defense is unstable.
Como’s Defensive Problems:
Como’s defense is weak, as supported by the data: their opponents score an average of 1.75 goals against them, while they only manage 0.5 goals per match. Their goalkeeper, Pepe Reina, has a low save percentage of 61.5%, and the PSxG data (-0.7) indicates that they have conceded more goals than statistically expected. This highlights the vulnerability of their defense, which Atalanta is likely to exploit.
Offensive Efficiency:
Although Como is not very effective in attack, Patrick Cutrone has scored 2 goals, and his attacking statistics (1.8 xG) place him among the team’s biggest hopes. However, Como heavily relies on him, and if Atalanta’s strong defense can neutralize him, it will be difficult for Como to pose a significant threat.
Yellow Cards and Fouls:
Atalanta’s defenders, especially Djimsiti and de Roon, who have already received a total of three yellow cards, are prone to fouls. Como’s players, such as Strefezza, also play an aggressive style, as confirmed by the number of fouls. Consequently, betting on yellow cards might be a good option, as both teams tend to play hard.
Expected Goal Difference and Team Form:
Atalanta’s home form is stable, while Como’s away performance is weak. Atalanta’s xG is much higher (3.07) than Como’s (1.86), indicating that Atalanta will likely dominate the match. Como has conceded 7 goals in their previous matches, further supporting this.
Betting Tips by Risk Categories
Low-Risk Tips:
- Atalanta to win (probability: 75%):
Atalanta’s form and attacking power against Como’s weak defense give them a clear advantage. Based on the statistics, an Atalanta win is likely, especially at home.Odds: 1.52 – Safe Kelly: 4% - Atalanta over 1.5 goals (probability: 70%):
Atalanta’s attackers, such as Retegui and Pašalić, are likely to score multiple goals against Como’s weak defense.Odds: 1.51 – Safe Kelly: 2%