ENGLAND: Championship – Round 6 – September 20, 2024
Analysis of the Stoke City – Hull City Match
This analysis focuses on statistical data and insights from expert analysis, emphasizing player performance, team motivation, and current form.
1. Player Performance and Statistical Indicators
Stoke City
- Stoke City has had mixed results in recent matches, recording 3 wins and 2 losses in their last 5 games. Their average expected goals (xG) in these matches is around 1.2, indicating difficulties in converting goal-scoring opportunities.
- Million Manhoef has been one of Stoke City’s top performers, being directly involved in 3 goals over 5 matches (1 goal, 2 assists). His dynamic attacking play and shooting accuracy of 53.8% make him a key player in their forward play.
- Goalkeeper Viktor Johansson has been consistent, with a save rate of 76.9%, though there have been occasional defensive lapses, leading to 6 goals conceded so far this season.
- Defensively, Ben Wilmot and Junior Tchamadeu have been dominant, boasting duel win rates of 56% and 53.3%, respectively.
Hull City
- Hull City is more defensive-minded, having scored just 2 goals this season, with their goals conceded tally (6) matching Stoke’s. Lewie Coyle and Chris Bedia have been effective in their attacks, though neither has shown standout form.
- In defense, Sean McLoughlin and Alfie Jones have been stable, with impressive passing accuracy of 90%, helping to build play from the back. McLoughlin also excels in aerial duels, with a 75% win rate.
- Hull City’s xG is 1.02, considerably lower than their opponents’ average of 1.72, indicating inefficiencies in attack and difficulty in creating clear goal-scoring chances.
Motivation and Tactical Context
Stoke City will be keen to improve their standing, particularly after losing their most recent league game to Oxford. Hull City, on the other hand, will aim to secure at least a point through solid defensive play, given they are playing away. Stoke is expected to apply pressure on Hull’s defense, but the latter’s stability may make it difficult to break through.
Low-risk Bet Builder Tip:
- Stoke City win or draw (1X) + Under 3.5 goals
- Both teams have weak attacking metrics. Hull City scores few goals, and Stoke’s attack is not particularly strong either. Their matches often result in low-scoring outcomes. While Stoke’s form isn’t remarkable, playing at home gives them a better chance of winning, especially against Hull’s weak attack.
Odds: 1.72 – Safe Kelly: 3%
Medium-risk Tip:
- More corners for Stoke City (65% probability)
- Stoke tends to dominate at home and creates more attacking opportunities, increasing their likelihood of earning more corners.