2024 August 18, LaLiga
Based on the combined analysis of statistics and expert opinions on the match between Mallorca and Real Madrid, some conclusions can be drawn regarding the outcome of the match, as well as a few safer betting tips for punters.
Statistical Analysis and Trends
According to the statistics, the most likely outcome is a Real Madrid victory, with a probability of 45.46%. Mallorca’s chances of winning are 28.25%, while a draw has a probability of 26.3%. The most common result would be a 1-0 victory for Real Madrid, with an 11.54% chance, while a 0-2 scoreline is also likely, with an 8.35% chance.
Mallorca’s form has improved compared to the previous season, having won five of their last six matches, but the team is starting with a new coach and is not yet fully prepared for the new season. In their most recent friendly match, they drew with Bologna, while Real Madrid convincingly defeated Atalanta in the Super Cup final. This victory significantly boosts Real Madrid’s confidence.
The statistics suggest that the total number of goals will likely stay under two, with the Under 2.5 market having a 53.68% probability, while Over 2.5 has only a 46.32% chance. The probability of Mallorca scoring is 66.08%, but the likelihood of them scoring two or more goals is only 29.41%, indicating Real Madrid’s defensive strength.
Expert Analysis
The expert analysis reveals that two key Real Madrid players, Alaba and Camavinga, will not be available due to injury, which could affect their defensive stability and midfield play. However, the team remains strong overall, especially with the arrival of Mbappé and Bellingham, who have already proven their impact in the match against Atalanta.
Mallorca’s new head coach, Jagoba Arrasate, who previously led Osasuna successfully, and the arrival of new players like Mojica and Asano may bring new energy to the team. However, the team is still adapting to the new system, which may pose a challenge early in the season.
Tips and Risk Levels
Low Risk
- Real Madrid to win (Risk: Low)
Based on statistical probability and Real Madrid’s current form, it is likely that the Madrid team will emerge victorious. Mallorca’s poor standing last season and the new coaching staff suggest that they may struggle to pose a strong challenge against such a powerful Real Madrid.- Probability: 45.46%
- Odds: 1.48x
- Suggested Stake: 5% of the bankroll.
- Mallorca to score under 1.5 goals (Risk: Low)
According to the statistics, it will be difficult for Mallorca to score more than one goal against Real Madrid, especially considering past matches where they rarely found the net against the Madrid team. Despite Alaba’s absence, Real Madrid’s defense is strong, and they are likely to minimize Mallorca’s attacking opportunities.- Probability: 75.17%
- Odds: 1.14x
- Kelly Criterion: 0% of the bankroll.
Medium Risk
- Total goals over 1.5 (Risk: Medium)
The statistical probability suggests that the match will not see many goals, particularly since Real Madrid is a defensively stable team, while Mallorca is likely to adopt a defensive strategy to minimize the effectiveness of Madrid’s attacks.- Probability: 70.59%
- Odds: 1.29x
- Kelly Criterion: 0% of the bankroll.
Summary and Conclusions
Based on the low and medium-risk tips, it can be concluded that the most likely outcome is a Real Madrid victory, with the total goals staying under 2.5, and Mallorca scoring less than 1.5 goals. These tips are primarily based on statistics and the current form of the teams, considering injuries and new players. Real Madrid’s motivation and desire for a strong start to the new season also contribute to making these tips low-risk from the perspective of bettors.