Fluminense – Palmeiras

Brasileiro Match

Statistical Analysis

Fluminense:

1. Goals and Expected Goals (xG):
   • The team has scored only 12 goals in 17 matches, averaging 0.71 goals per match.
   • Their xG is 14.8, indicating that the team is underperforming compared to expectations.
   • Their top scorers: Ganso (3 goals) and Germán Cano (2 goals), with Ganso having the highest xG+G-xG ratio (+2.3).
2. Attacks and Shots:
   • The team has attempted 186 shots, with 71 on target. Their average shot accuracy (SoT%) is 38.2%.
   • Ganso and Germán Cano are the players who shoot the most, but their shooting efficiency is low.
3. Passes and Creativity:
   • Martinelli and Ganso are the engines of the team’s passing game, with 954 and 806 attempts, respectively, at 90.8% and 86.8% accuracy.
   • Ganso also provided 52 key passes (SCA), 19 of which came from set pieces.
4. Defense:
   • Martinelli and Samuel Xavier have the most successful tackles (18 and 14, respectively).
   • Defensively, the team is underperforming: they conceded 24 goals in 17 matches, averaging 1.41 goals per match.
5. Special Events:
   • The team received 54 yellow cards and 3 red cards, indicating disciplinary issues.

Palmeiras:

1. Goals and Expected Goals (xG):
   • The team has scored 20 goals in 18 matches, averaging 1.11 goals per match.
   • Their xG is 26.3, also indicating underperformance compared to expectations.
   • Their top scorers: Estevão (5 goals) and José López (5 goals), with Estevão having the highest xG+G-xG ratio (+1.0).
2. Attacks and Shots:
   • The team has attempted 201 shots, with 74 on target. Their average shot accuracy (SoT%) is 36.8%.
   • Estevão and Rony are the most active in attacks, both with 12 shots on target.
3. Passes and Creativity:
   • Raphael Veiga and Joaquín Piquerez are the engines of the team’s passing game, with 1,283 and 1,314 attempts, respectively, at 88.9% and 89.7% accuracy.
   • Raphael Veiga also provided 87 key passes (SCA), 28 of which came from set pieces.
4. Defense:
   • Murilo Cerqueira and Marcos Rocha have the most successful tackles (18 and 14, respectively).
   • Defensively, the team is stronger: they conceded only 13 goals in 18 matches, averaging 0.72 goals per match.
5. Special Events:
   • The team received 40 yellow cards, but no red cards.

Human Analysis

Based on human analysis, Fluminense is currently out of form and struggling with serious attacking issues. In contrast, Palmeiras has stable defense and multiple attacking options. The analysis highlights that Palmeiras is likely to secure more points.

Betting Tip Recommendations and Risks

Low and Medium Risk Tips:

1. Under 3.5 goals in the match (Low risk 1.24x), Under 2.5 goals (Medium risk 1.70x)
   • Both teams have low goal averages, and their defenses are relatively stable.
2. Palmeiras to win (Medium Risk 2.06x), Palmeiras to win or draw (Low risk 1.46x)
   • While Palmeiras is in better form, Fluminense can sometimes pull off surprises at home.
3. Under 12.5 corners in the match (Low risk 1.34x), Under 11.5 (Medium risk 1.52x)
   • Both teams average few corners, making this a realistic bet.

Summary

Based on statistical and human analysis, Palmeiras is clearly the favored team. The safest betting options include under 2.5 goals and a Palmeiras win. Medium-risk betting options include a Palmeiras win and the number of corners. Given the attacking and defensive statistics of both teams, these betting tips are realistic and well-founded.