SAO PAULO – BARCELONA SC

17/05/2024 dawn (Central European Time), 16/05/2024 evening local time

General Summary

Based on a preliminary analysis of the match between Sao Paulo and Barcelona SC, it is important to highlight the performance of both teams so far, their statistical indicators and the expected performances of the players. In the analysis, I will also take into account the findings of human analysts, but I will put more emphasis on the statistical data.

Sao Paulo Statistical Analysis

Sao Paulo have performed strongly in the Copa Libertadores group stage so far, with three wins and one defeat. The following key statistics are worth highlighting:

• Goals: Jonathan Calleri (3 goals) and Luciano (2 goals) are the biggest threat to the opponent’s goal. Calleri is particularly efficient, with a 4.11 shots/90 minutes average and a 2.5 xG ratio.
• Passing: Alisson (92.0% passing accuracy), Igor Vinícius (86.7%) and Robert Arboleda (92.6%) play a key role in building the attack.
• Defence: Robert Arboleda (7 clearances), Alisson (9 tackles) and Diego (5 clearances) do important defensive work.

Barcelona SC Statistical Analysis

Barcelona SC has come through a tough group stage, with two draws and two defeats. The following statistical indicators are worth noting:

• Goals: Damián Díaz (2 goals) and Francisco Fydriszewski (1 goal) are the team’s most dangerous attackers.
• Passing: Luca Sosa (79.9% passing accuracy) and Nicolás Ramírez (90.3%) are key players in defence and in launching attacks.
• Defence: William Vargas (15 tackles) and Nicolás Ramírez (7 tackles) are important defensive players.

Priority Analysis Points

1. Shape Timing and Home Track Advantage:

• Sao Paulo are strong at home, as reflected in their wins so far and their high possession rates (73% against Cobresal, 61% against Barcelona away).
• Barcelona SC are in a poor form away from home, which could be a disadvantage for them.

1. Offensive Effectiveness:

• Sao Paulo’s attacking line is extremely efficient, especially with Calleri and Luciano. Their high xG and shooting percentages suggest they are likely to score goals.
• Barcelona SC less efficient in attack, which could be exploited by Sao Paulo.

1. Defence and Goalkeeper Performance:

• Sao Paulo goalkeeper Rafael Pires has a 70% save efficiency, while Barcelona SC goalkeeper Javier Burrai has only 36.4%.
• Sao Paulo’s defence seems to be more solid, especially on the basis of their performances at home.

Tip recommendations (Low and Medium Risk)

1. Sao Paulo Win (Low risk):

• Based on the statistics and the home advantage, Sao Paulo is likely to win the match.

1. Goal in both halves (Medium risk):

• Based on the efficiency of Sao Paulo’s attacking line and Barcelona SC’s defensive frailties, a goal is expected in both halves.

1. Jonathan Calleri’s goal (Low risk):

• Based on Calleri’s current form and statistical indicators, there is a good chance that he will score.

1. More than 1.5 goals in the match (Low risk):

• Based on the offensive efficiency and defensive deficiencies, it is likely that more than 1.5 goals will be scored in the match.

Closing Thoughts

Based on statistical analysis and human analysts’ findings, Sao Paulo is the favourite, especially at home. Based on the efficiency of the attacking line and their defensive stability, several picks are low to medium risk. It’s important to pay attention to current injuries and exact starting lineups before the match, but based on current data, these are solid picks.