📅 Match Date: February 5, 2025
🏟 Location: San Siro, Milan
🏆 Coppa Italia, Quarter-Final
📊 Team and Player Statistical Analysis
🔴 AC Milan
- Form (across all competitions): WLWWLD
- Coppa Italia Performance: 6-1 victory against Sassuolo in the round of 16
- Last Match: 1-1 draw against Inter Milan
- Strengths:
- High Possession (70% against Sassuolo) → Controlled playing style
- Prolific Attacking Players → Samuel Chukwueze (2 goals in the last cup match), Tammy Abraham (goal + assist)
- Solid Defense → Led by Pavlović and Tomori, they concede few goals
- Weaknesses:
- Inconsistent Form → They excel in some matches and underperform in others
- Absentees → Ruben Loftus-Cheek, Emerson Royal, and Alessandro Florenzi are injured
🟡 AS Roma
- Form (across all competitions): DWLWWD
- Coppa Italia Performance: 4-1 victory against Sampdoria
- Last Match: 1-1 draw against Napoli
- Strengths:
- Paulo Dybala’s Key Role → 10 goals against Milan in his career
- Physically Strong Midfield → Paredes, Pellegrini, and Kone are strong in ball retention
- In-Form Defense → Return of Ndicka and Hummels has stabilized the team
- Weaknesses:
- Weak Away Form → Only 1 away win in the season
- Absentees → Gianluca Mancini is suspended
📈 Key Statistics and Interesting Facts
- Most Likely Result: AC Milan win (45.94%), Draw (25.1%), AS Roma win (29.01%).
- Both Teams to Score: 54.87% probability.
- AC Milan More Than 0.5 Goals: 78.97% probability.
- AS Roma More Than 0.5 Goals: 69.49% probability.
- Most Common Results: 1-0 in Milan’s favor (10%), 2-1 Milan (9.26%), 1-1 draw (11.87%).
✅ Medium Risk Tips
- Milan to Win (Draw No Bet Asian Handicap)
- Probability: 70.94%
- Reason: Better home form and more stable play, while Roma struggles away.
Odds: 1.50 – Kelly: 1%
- Both Teams to Score – YES
- Probability: 54.87%
- Reason: Roma and Milan both have attacking setups and have been scoring frequently recently.
Odds: 1.65 – Kelly: 1%
🔎 Surprising or Interesting Observations
- Dybala is particularly dangerous against Milan → 10 goals against them in his career, but only 1 in Coppa Italia.
- Roma’s weak away performance → 1 win away this season, advising caution.
- Milan’s home dominance → More than 70% possession against Sassuolo in Coppa Italia, indicating a desire to control the match.
- Ranieri’s coaching experience in Coppa Italia → Won 6 out of 8 matches in charge of Roma.
📝 Summary
- Milan has a slight edge, but Roma’s attacking play can be dangerous.
- A close match is likely, with both teams potentially scoring.
- Betting tips are based on statistics and current form, focusing mainly on low to medium-risk options.
An exciting Coppa Italia clash is expected, where small differences could be decisive! ⚽🔥