Shakhtar Donetsk – Brest

January 22, 2025, Champions League

Analysis

1. Team and Player Statistics Overview

Shakhtar Donetsk

• Performance on the European Stage:
  • Only 1 win from 6 matches (xG: 6.0, xGA: 12.7), showing weak attacking and defensive performances.
  • The results reflect defensive weaknesses, especially given the high xGA (12.7).
• Key Players:
  • Heorhiy Sudakov: The only midfielder to score and provide an assist. He averages 28 ball recoveries per match, indicating an active role in defensive work.
  • Oleksandr Zubkov: 2 goals and 1 assist, the most successful in the attacking department, but his xG performance (8.9) is lower than expected.

Brest

• European Performance:
  • Four wins from 6 matches, showing strength as a team (xG: 7.7, xGA: 8.0), but their defense is vulnerable according to the xGA indicator.
  • Several key players are missing in defense, further exacerbating defensive issues.
• Key Players:
  • Hugo Magnetti: A crucial midfielder, with 31 ball recoveries per match, actively supporting both the attacking and defensive efforts.
  • Marco Bizot: An experienced goalkeeper, a key pillar of defense, but the high xGA (8.0) shows weaknesses.

2. Key Trends and Correlations

• Shakhtar Donetsk: The team’s issues lie in weak defense and attackers’ low efficiency. They have underperformed in the attacking third compared to their xG.
• Brest: While their attacking play is more efficient, their defense tends to falter, especially under high pressure. Missing several key players could worsen this situation.

3. Betting Tips

Low-Risk Tips:

1. “Both Teams to Score” (Probability: 54.18%)
   • Brest’s attacking strength and Shakhtar’s defensive weaknesses support this tip.
   • Odds: 1.61
2. “Shakhtar to Score More Than 0.5 Goals” (Probability: 80.6%)
   • Brest’s defensive deficiencies increase the chances of this outcome.
   • Odds: 1.27

Medium-Risk Tips:

1. “Over 2.5 Goals” (Probability: 51.98%)
   • Both teams tend to attack, especially under pressure, with Shakhtar’s attacking play.
   • Odds: 1.75

4. Interesting and Surprising Facts

• Brest could be the first French team to win 5 matches in a debut Champions League season since Lyon in 2000-2001.
• Shakhtar has already lost a 2-goal lead twice in this year’s Champions League, suggesting mental fragility.

Conclusion

Based on statistics and expert analysis, Brest is better prepared, but Shakhtar can improve their performance. Betting recommendations focus on goals and Shakhtar’s minimal chances of winning.