Copa del Rey, Quarter-Final
Team Statistics and Trends
Leganés:
- Cup Form: 4 wins, 0 draws, 0 losses (WWWW).
- Overall Form: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss in the last 5 games.
- Latest Match: Lost 1-0 to Rayo Vallecano (played with a red card).
- Home Record: Lost 4 out of their last 5 home games – significant home performance issues.
- Defense: Conceded 6 goals in 5 matches (average of 1.2 goals per game).
- Attack: Scored 9 goals in 4 matches (average 2.25 goals/game), but opponents are not at the level of Real Madrid.
- Missing Key Players: Enrique Franquesa is injured, and Seydouba Cissé is out, weakening their midfield.
Real Madrid:
- Cup Form: 2 wins, 0 draws, 0 losses (WW).
- Overall Form: 5 wins, 1 loss in the last 6 matches.
- Latest Match: Lost 1-0 to Espanyol.
- Away Performance: Impressive, won 4 of their last 5 away games.
- Defense: Conceded only 1 goal in the 4 matches prior to their loss against Espanyol.
- Attack: Scored 10 goals in the last two cup games (average of 5 goals/game!).
- Missing Players: Mbappé, Bellingham, Camavinga, Carvajal, Militão, Rüdiger – significant losses.
Player Statistics and Outstanding Performances
Key Players for Leganés:
- Miguel de la Fuente (forward) – 3 goals in the cup, a crucial player in decisive moments.
- Juan Cruz (midfielder) – 1 goal, 1 assist, a creative midfielder on whom they can rely.
- Renato Tapia (midfielder) – Could play a key role in the midfield in Cissé’s absence.
Key Players for Real Madrid:
- Brahim Díaz (attacker) – 2 assists in the cup, may play a bigger role with Mbappé and Bellingham out.
- Luka Modric (midfielder) – Experience and leadership will be vital in such a cup match.
- Endrick (forward) – A talented youngster who will get a chance to prove himself.
Match Prediction and Outcome Probabilities
- Real Madrid Win: 80.92%
- Draw: 13.2%
- Leganés Win: 5.91%
- Most Likely Scores: 0-2 (14.34%), 0-3 (12.38%), 0-1 (11.08%)
Key Moments:
- Real Madrid is expected to dominate possession.
- Leganés might rely on counterattacks, but the absence of key players makes it tough.
- Even with several starters missing, Real Madrid’s bench still has enough quality.
Low-Risk Bet:
- Real Madrid Win (80.92%)
- Likely outcome based on statistical predictions and the difference between the two teams.
- Recommended Stake: Odds around 1.3-1.4.
Odds: 1.53 – Kelly: 2%
Medium-Risk Bet:
- Real Madrid Over 1.5 Goals (73.06%)
- The team scored 5 goals each in their previous two cup games; Leganés’ defense isn’t stable enough.
- Recommended Stake: Odds around 1.6.
Odds: 1.54 – Kelly: 1%
Surprising or Interesting Observations
- Real Madrid’s Strong Cup Tempo – Despite playing with a depleted squad, they managed 5-0 and 5-2 results.
- Leganés’ Home Weakness – They lost 4 out of their last 5 home games, which could be a significant issue.
- Absence of Mbappé and Bellingham – Madrid’s attacking power might decrease, but they can still be confident based on stats.
Summary
Based on statistical and expert analysis, Real Madrid is the clear favorite for this match. While Leganés might put up a fight, their missing players, poor home record, and Real Madrid’s attacking potential make it hard to imagine them causing an upset. When considering betting, the low-risk options are recommended, as Real Madrid’s win is statistically well-supported.
Expected Final Score: 0-2 or 0-3 in favor of Real Madrid.