Benfica-Barcelona

January 21, 2025, Champions League

1. Team Performance

Benfica:

  • They score an average of 1.67 goals per game and concede 1.17 goals.
  • Their attacking play is stronger at home (xG: 1.97), while they are less effective away.
  • Average possession is 48.7%, indicating frequent use of counter-attacking football.
  • Correlations show a strong link between Benfica’s attacking efficiency (xG) and goals scored (0.91 correlation coefficient).

Barcelona:

  • They score 3.5 goals per game, conceding only 1.17, showing dominant offensive form.
  • Their xG value (2.4) supports the fact that they capitalize on most of their opportunities.
  • Their possession average of 58.5% is outstanding, reflecting their dominant playing style.
  • A strong correlation between xG and goals scored (0.93) suggests that their opportunities come from high-quality chances.

2. Key Player Performance

Benfica:

  • Kerem Aktürkoğlu: 3 goals, 466 minutes played, xG: 2.9 – Effective attacker.
  • Orkun Kökçü: 2 goals, 490 minutes played, xG: 1.1 – Solid midfield performance.
  • Angel Di Maria (uncertain appearance): 1 goal, 2 assists, could be crucial in attacks.

Barcelona:

  • Robert Lewandowski: 7 goals, xG: 5.8 – In outstanding form, the primary goal threat.
  • Raphinha: 6 goals, 2 assists – His creativity and speed are vital on the wings.
  • Iñigo Martínez: 2 goals, solid defense, 58.8% success in duels.

3. Notable Insights from the Data

  • Benfica tends to create more chances at home, but they are vulnerable to quick counter-attacks defensively.
  • Barcelona has been imperfect away recently, and despite dominating possession, they can be vulnerable defensively (average xGA: 1.02).
  • Benfica has an 87.7% probability of scoring at least 1 goal, while Barcelona’s probability is 66.3%.

Betting Tips and Recommendations

Low Risk:

  1. Both Teams to Score (BTTS: Yes) – Probability: 58.17%
    • Benfica’s strong attack at home, Barcelona’s attacking power with Lewandowski.
    • Recommendation: Based on recent matches and forms, both teams have strong attacking potential.
      Odds: 1.36

Medium Risk:

  1. Benfica +0.5 Asian Handicap (Draw or Win) – Probability: 60.56%
    • Benfica is strong at home and can cause an upset against a Barcelona side that is more vulnerable away.
      Odds: 1.66
  2. Over 2.5 Goals in the Match – Probability: 61.72%
    • Both teams have strong offensive stats, and the data suggest a high-scoring game.
      Odds: 1.36

Summary and Expected Outcome

  • Statistical models suggest a 60.56% probability of Benfica winning, 20.53% for a draw, and 18.91% for Barcelona to win.
  • The most likely outcome is a 2-1 win for Benfica (9.9%), but a draw remains a strong possibility.

Recommended Final Bet:

  • “Both Teams to Score” and “Over 2.5 Goals” combined bet, offering good value based on the available data.
    Odds: 1.53

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