January 21, 2025, Champions League
1. Team Performance
Benfica:
- They score an average of 1.67 goals per game and concede 1.17 goals.
- Their attacking play is stronger at home (xG: 1.97), while they are less effective away.
- Average possession is 48.7%, indicating frequent use of counter-attacking football.
- Correlations show a strong link between Benfica’s attacking efficiency (xG) and goals scored (0.91 correlation coefficient).
Barcelona:
- They score 3.5 goals per game, conceding only 1.17, showing dominant offensive form.
- Their xG value (2.4) supports the fact that they capitalize on most of their opportunities.
- Their possession average of 58.5% is outstanding, reflecting their dominant playing style.
- A strong correlation between xG and goals scored (0.93) suggests that their opportunities come from high-quality chances.
2. Key Player Performance
Benfica:
- Kerem Aktürkoğlu: 3 goals, 466 minutes played, xG: 2.9 – Effective attacker.
- Orkun Kökçü: 2 goals, 490 minutes played, xG: 1.1 – Solid midfield performance.
- Angel Di Maria (uncertain appearance): 1 goal, 2 assists, could be crucial in attacks.
Barcelona:
- Robert Lewandowski: 7 goals, xG: 5.8 – In outstanding form, the primary goal threat.
- Raphinha: 6 goals, 2 assists – His creativity and speed are vital on the wings.
- Iñigo Martínez: 2 goals, solid defense, 58.8% success in duels.
3. Notable Insights from the Data
- Benfica tends to create more chances at home, but they are vulnerable to quick counter-attacks defensively.
- Barcelona has been imperfect away recently, and despite dominating possession, they can be vulnerable defensively (average xGA: 1.02).
- Benfica has an 87.7% probability of scoring at least 1 goal, while Barcelona’s probability is 66.3%.
Betting Tips and Recommendations
Low Risk:
- Both Teams to Score (BTTS: Yes) – Probability: 58.17%
- Benfica’s strong attack at home, Barcelona’s attacking power with Lewandowski.
- Recommendation: Based on recent matches and forms, both teams have strong attacking potential.
Odds: 1.36
Medium Risk:
- Benfica +0.5 Asian Handicap (Draw or Win) – Probability: 60.56%
- Benfica is strong at home and can cause an upset against a Barcelona side that is more vulnerable away.
Odds: 1.66
- Benfica is strong at home and can cause an upset against a Barcelona side that is more vulnerable away.
- Over 2.5 Goals in the Match – Probability: 61.72%
- Both teams have strong offensive stats, and the data suggest a high-scoring game.
Odds: 1.36
- Both teams have strong offensive stats, and the data suggest a high-scoring game.
Summary and Expected Outcome
- Statistical models suggest a 60.56% probability of Benfica winning, 20.53% for a draw, and 18.91% for Barcelona to win.
- The most likely outcome is a 2-1 win for Benfica (9.9%), but a draw remains a strong possibility.
Recommended Final Bet:
- “Both Teams to Score” and “Over 2.5 Goals” combined bet, offering good value based on the available data.
Odds: 1.53