Celtic – Young Boys

January 22, 2025, Champions League

Celtic Analysis

1. Team Performance:
   • Celtic’s average goals scored (GF) per match: 1.67
   • Goals conceded (GA) per match: 1.67
   • Expected goals (xG): 1.57, expected goals against (xGA): 1.40, indicating their attacking and defensive performance is relatively balanced.
   • Possession percentage is high, averaging 55.17%, reflecting their dominance in ball control.
2. Player Performance:
   • Average match participation: 4.15 matches
   • Goals scored per player: 1.32, with a notable distribution suggesting a few key contributors in attack.
   • Expected goals (xG) contribution indicates decent efficiency but some underperformance in converting chances.

Young Boys Analysis

1. Team Performance:
   • Average goals scored (GF) per match: 0.88, showing struggles in attack.
   • Goals conceded (GA): 3.00, suggesting defensive frailties.
   • Expected goals (xG): 0.70, expected goals against (xGA): 2.58, emphasizing their defensive weaknesses.
   • Possession is considerably lower, averaging 42.38%, highlighting their reactive playing style.
2. Player Performance:
   • Participation in matches: 3.60 on average.
   • Goals scored per player: 1.08, indicating a reliance on a few key players.
   • Defensive metrics suggest significant vulnerabilities in aerial duels and recovery rates.

Betting Recommendations

Low Risk Bets:

1. Celtic to Win (75.01% probability)
   • Explanation: Strong home form, high possession, and opponent’s weak defense.
   • Suggested bet: Celtic to win. Odds: 1.31
2. Over 1.5 Celtic goals (77.93% probability)
   • Explanation: Consistent attacking output and Young Boys’ weak defensive record.
   • Suggested bet: Over 1.5 Celtic goals. Odds: 1.24

Medium Risk Bets:

1. Celtic to win by a margin of 2+ goals (55% probability)
   • Explanation: Young Boys’ poor away form and goal difference issues.
   • Suggested bet: Celtic -1.5 handicap. Odds: 1.75
2. Both Teams to Score – No (60.67% probability)
   • Explanation: Young Boys’ low scoring potential.
   • Suggested bet: BTTS – No. Odds: 2.19

Interesting Insights

• Celtic are undefeated at home in 2024 and have strong historical form.
• Young Boys have conceded heavily and are on the verge of an unwanted record for goals allowed.
• The probability for over 2.5 goals is high (74.59%), but caution is advised based on Young Boys’ lack of attacking threat.