EUROPE: UEFA Nations League – League B – Round 4
The pre-match statistics and analysis for the Kazakhstan vs Slovenia match show a clear difference in the performance of the two teams. Kazakhstan is currently in poor form, while Slovenia has shown moderate results despite losing to Norway in their last match.
Statistical Analysis
- Kazakhstan’s Performance:
- Kazakhstan hasn’t scored in their last three matches (0-0 vs Norway, then two losses: 0-3 vs Slovenia and 0-4 vs Austria). Statistically, this points to serious problems in their attack, as they had only 5 shots with no shots on target.
- None of the players have shown outstanding form, but the main problem is the poor performance of the forwards and midfielders. For instance, Baktiyor Zainutdinov has played only 6 minutes at club level and hasn’t posed any real threat in the previous matches.
- Defensively, Kazakhstan allowed 29 shots against Austria, indicating they were under significant pressure. The 7 goals conceded show that their defense has also performed poorly.
- Slovenia’s Performance:
- Slovenia has had mixed results in their three matches so far but is statistically favored over Kazakhstan. Benjamin Šeško stands out with 4 goals in his last three games, indicating that he could pose a significant threat to Kazakhstan’s defense.
- Goalkeeper Jan Oblak is also a stable presence in the team, with an 80% save rate, indicating reliability.
- Slovenia’s form is moderate but looks better than Kazakhstan’s, and especially through Šeško, they have had more attempts on goal, giving them a chance to score.
Human Analysis Consideration
Human analysis mentions that Kazakhstan is currently in poor form, and their attack, particularly Abat Ajymbetov and Baktiyor Zainutdinov, have had limited playing time at their clubs. This suggests that Kazakhstan is unlikely to cause many problems for Slovenia’s defense.
For Slovenia, the attack led by Benjamin Šeško and Andraž Šporar could pose a significant threat, especially since Šeško has already scored 10 goals this season at both club and international levels. Slovenia’s goal is to stay in the promotion race, so they will be motivated to win.
Low-Risk Bet Builder Tip:
- Slovenia win or draw (X2) Under 3.5 goals in the match
- Based on both teams’ performances so far, there is a realistic chance of few goals being scored, as Kazakhstan has a weak attack and Slovenia hasn’t shown outstanding form in recent matches.
Odds: 1.50 – Safe Kelly: 3%
Medium-Risk Tip:
- Slovenia win – Probability: 43.49%
- Statistically, Slovenia has a 43.49% chance of winning, while Kazakhstan has only a 28% chance. With Slovenia’s stronger attack and Kazakhstan’s weak defense, this is a low-risk tip.
- Risk: Low
Odds: 1.73 – Safe Kelly: 2%
Conclusion
Based on the statistics and human analysis, Slovenia is favored to win, and Kazakhstan is unlikely to pose much threat in their attacks. A low-risk tip is Slovenia winning, with Kazakhstan scoring fewer than 1.5 goals. If the match is too close to call for the final result, it’s worth considering fewer than 2.5 goals in the match.