January 24, 2025, Bundesliga
1. Team Statistical Analysis
Wolfsburg
- Form: In the last 6 Bundesliga matches, 3 wins and 3 losses (WLWWLL), indicating inconsistent performance.
- Attacking Statistics:
- They score an average of 2.22 goals per match.
- xG value: 26.9, indicating a strong attacking presence.
- Mohamed Amoura is their top scorer with 8 goals.
- Defense:
- They concede an average of 1.78 goals per match.
- xGA (expected goals against): 26.9 – the number of goals conceded aligns with expectations.
Holstein Kiel
- Form: In the last 6 matches, 2 wins and 4 losses (LLWLWL), showing poor form.
- Attacking Statistics:
- They score an average of 1.44 goals per match.
- xG: 20.7, indicating low attacking potential.
- Shuto Machino and Phil Harres are their most dangerous players with 7 goals each.
- Defense:
- They concede an average of 2.56 goals per match, indicating very weak defense.
- xGA: 20.7 – the number of goals conceded significantly exceeds expectations.
2. Player Statistical Analysis
Wolfsburg Key Players:
- Mohamed Amoura: 8 goals, 6 assists – an outstandingly in-form attacker.
- Maximilian Arnold: 2 goals, 4 assists – plays an important role in midfield.
- Kilian Fischer: Reliable defender with a 53.8% success rate in aerial duels.
Holstein Kiel Key Players:
- Shuto Machino: 7 goals, 2 assists – key attacking figure.
- Magnus Knudsen: Stable midfielder, has defended against 22 fouls.
- Timon Weiner: Goalkeeper conceded 9.5 goals on average, indicating poor form.
3. Observations Based on Data
- Wolfsburg Strength: Strong attacking line, stable home performance (4 wins in the last 5 home matches).
- Holstein Kiel Weakness: Very weak defense and poor away form (lost their last 5 away matches).
- Possible Goal Pattern: Wolfsburg matches often see multiple goals (average 3.56 per match), and Kiel’s weak defense may continue this trend.
4. Betting Tips by Risk Levels
Low-Risk Tips:
- Wolfsburg Win – Probability: 47.71%, Odds: 1.51, Kelly: 2%
- Wolfsburg is strong at home, while Holstein Kiel performs poorly away.
- Both Teams to Score – Probability: 62.73%, Odds: 1.71, Kelly: 5%
- Kiel may score due to Wolfsburg’s occasional defensive lapses.
- Over 2.5 Goals in the Match – Probability: 61.98%, Odds: 1.54, Kelly: 2%
- Due to Wolfsburg’s attacking power and Kiel’s defensive weaknesses, at least 3 goals are likely.
Medium-Risk Tips:
- Wolfsburg -1 Handicap (Wolfsburg to win by at least 2 goals) – Probability: 39.72%, Odds: 2.14, Kelly: 1.5%
- Kiel has conceded many goals, so Wolfsburg may achieve a larger victory margin.
- Mohamed Amoura to Score – Probability: 54%, Odds: 2.35, Kelly: 1%
- Given his recent form and Kiel’s defensive issues, this is a realistic possibility.
- Over 8.5 Corners in the Match – Probability: 58%, Odds: 1.42, Kelly: 1.5%
- Wolfsburg may dominate, leading to many corners.
5. Surprising Facts Based on Analysis
- Holstein Kiel has yet to win an away match this season, which could create psychological pressure.
- One of Wolfsburg’s weakest points in defense is handling crosses from the sides, presenting an attacking opportunity for Kiel.
- Kiel has conceded 46 goals, the worst defense in the league.