GERMANY: Bundesliga – Matchday 15
Team and Player Performance Analysis
Wolfsburg
- Attack Performance: The team has scored 31 goals so far, making them the fourth-best attacking team in the Bundesliga. Their key player is Tiago Tomás, who has scored 5 goals and has shown consistent performance (with an xG value above 4).
- Defensive Weaknesses: The team has conceded 25 goals, which is the sixth-worst defensive record. Kilian Fischer shows weak stats in defense and duels (only a 52.9% aerial duel success rate).
- Form: They are unbeaten in their last five home matches, with three victories.
Borussia Dortmund
- Attack Performance: The team has scored 25 goals, with Serhou Guirassy being their top scorer with 6 goals. The xG value indicates a stable attacking presence.
- Defense: With 21 goals conceded, they have the 10th-best defensive record. Nico Schlotterbeck is a key figure in defense, winning 73.8% of his duels.
- Away Form: In their last six away matches, they have suffered five losses, indicating a weak away record, although they have not lost in the last two matches.
Key Patterns and Insights
- Wolfsburg’s attacks mainly rely on Tiago Tomás and Ridle Baku, who lead fast counter-attacks. Dortmund’s defense may be vulnerable against them, especially on the wings.
- Dortmund’s away form shows a significant decline, contrasting with Wolfsburg’s strength at home.
- According to the xG data, both teams are likely to be dangerous in front of goal, particularly Dortmund’s attackers (Guirassy, Reyna).
Betting Tips by Risk Category
Low-Risk Tips
- Both Teams to Score (BTTS)
- Probability: 61.73%
- Rationale: Both teams have strong attacking sections, while their defenses are vulnerable.
Odds: 1.52 – Kelly: 2%
- Over 2.5 Goals
- Probability: 59.93%
- Rationale: Wolfsburg’s attacking strength and Dortmund’s tendency for high-scoring matches support this.
Odds: 1.61 – Kelly: 2%
Medium-Risk Tip
- Dortmund Draw No Bet (Asian 0 Handicap)
- Probability: 67.48%
- Rationale: Dortmund has more stable attacking performance, and Wolfsburg’s defensive weaknesses can be exploited.
Odds: 1.65 – Kelly: 1%
Interesting Statistical Observations
- Wolfsburg is weak in aerial duels, which could give an advantage to Dortmund’s taller and more physical players.
- Dortmund’s players, like Guirassy and Reyna, stand out with their high attacking xG values, demonstrating their threat even with a weaker team form.